The Age of Iggy

Bob Rae officially dropped out of the race to succeed Stephane Dion as leader of the federal Liberals, clearing the way for his old college roommate (Google it, it's true), Michael Ignatieff to lead the way.

So, here we come to the Age of Iggy. Will it be successful? Maybe, but I think we can all say with some confidence that it will be better than the epic fail of Dion.

There are many things to be done, and little time to do them in.

The Liberals need to get a grassroots fund raising operation moving, or the next attempt to cut of public financing of political parties could simply kill them off altogether.

They have to make themselves relevant to people outside of Ontario/Quebec that are under 35, as they were basically shut out west of the Manitoba-Ontario border. There was a handful of seats, but the West is turning solid blue, and that trend needs to be reversed or at least stunted for the Liberals to have any kind of viability going into the future.

Although, there is one thing that trumps these problems, and that is the prospect of a coalition government. Not surprisingly, as it was controlled by the Liberals, the coalition proposal was rolled out very badly, and the public seems to be turning against it. Personally I think it would be better for Canada, as they would actually govern with other parties and interests in mind other than their own. That being said, the idea of Prime Minister Dion was a large part of what killed the deal.

Now that part of the equation has been erased, I'm still not convinced that a coalition under Ignatieff would be any more palatable to the public.

The Liberals have kind of backed their way into a corner with this one, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Basically they have put themselves in a place where they can't really support a budget that doesn't meet their exact specifications, as they've shown the willingness to take this thing to the mat, and if they turned away from toppling the government or voting them out, it would look like the only time they want to take action 'for Canada', is when they would benefit from it. Same goes for the NDP and the Bloc.

The only thing we can hope for is Harper makes some concessions and the Liberals are at least able to credibly say it was a compromise deal. It does look like Harper is striking a more conciliatory tone in the last day or so, pledging to work with the other parties to make Parliament, well, work.

I've heard and seen this show before, so until I see a consensus budget, with input from all parties, Harper's words will still ring hollow to me.

Now, if the Liberals fail, we're looking at a Harper majority, without a doubt. If an election was held today, they would easily go over the hump into majority territory, due to the bungled coalition roll-out.

As I've written on here before, I also think that Iggy basically has the task of saving the Liberals from complete and utter obscurity, which is where they will reside if Harper ever takes the majority reigns.

The bottom line is that Canada needs to work, and every party, not just Harper, but every party needs to cooperate, and govern this land with good faith towards the other parties.

I know minorities are contentious, and the next election is always right around the corner, and policy-making in a minority situation tends to lean more towards electioneering than actual governance, but heading into a recession, and possible depression without the right steps, this is not the time to try and cut a political opponent off at the knees while (metaphorically) Rome burns in the background.

Ignatieff himself is an interesting candidate, just based on the fact that he was out of the country for decades at a time teaching at Harvard, and only returned a few years ago to run for office and the leadership.

I can see this going one of two ways, and it depends on controlling the narrative.

Harper has shown himself to be very adept at this part of the game, and the Liberals have, well, been the exact opposite, tripping over themselves and whining about attack ads when they should have been firing back with vigour.

If Ignatieff is framed as an elitist, Canada-abandoning candidate, out of touch with Canadian interests, this thing is over before it even starts.

The Liberals need to highlight that we're talking about a Harvard professor here, a very intelligent man, and one untainted by previous Liberal scandals and mismanagement.

It all comes down to the message, and if things keep on the same track we've seen, there will be Ignatieff attack ads out there tomorrow. They need to hit back hard, and right away, fighting the negative narrative wherever and whenever they can.

Dion, frankly, was a wimp, and was seen as such from almost the minute he stepped atop the party. That was because of a sustained media effort by the Conservative Party, that the Liberals could not counter for the life of them.

Harper defined Dion.

Ignatieff needs to define himself, or he'll be in the scrapheap next to Stephane and the party very, very shortly.

The Liberal Leadership : The Race, and the New Political Reality

With Stephane Dion resigning this past Monday as leader of the Liberal Party, (thank God) it opens up a new race for the person that will succeed him and lead the Grits into the next election, and hopefully further.

There are already contenders floating around, even as Dion's gravestone is still being carved.

Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, the two from which the last leader should have been chosen, will almost certainly be in the running once again, as their leadership campaign machines are still warm under the hood from the last race. Both of these two, as last time, have even-to-better odds of being the next leader in 2009. Hopefully we don't see another dark horse backroom deal like the one that screwed both of these men in 2006. If they lose, they lose, but Dion pulled 18% on the first ballot in '06 and ended up the leader. That stinks worse than roadkill on a 40 degree day.

Today, Martin Cauchon, a member from the Chretien era, has said he may also consider tossing his hat into the ring, citing the need for a 'generational change'. He is experienced in government, a former Cabinet minister, and is only in his late 40s, well under the 60-plus years of both Ignatieff and Rae. He could have a shot, but with Dion doing so badly, mostly based on his communication skills, I find it hard to believe the Liberals would appoint another Francophone to their leadership. Aside from that, his age and experience would both be tremendous assets. We'll see where that goes, but I'm labelling him as a long shot for now.

There are also some other repeat candidates, aside from Rae and Ignatieff.

Gerard Kennedy, the man that gave us Stephane Dion is likely to run again, as is Martha Hall Findley, who may find herself on better footing this time around than last, as she is now a sitting MP. Same with Kennedy.

They are still considered very long-shot tries and if either wins, I will be stunned, but in that same sense, who saw Dion as viable last time?

The most intriguing of all the candidates, at least in my mind, is Frank McKenna, the former premier of New Brunswick, Canadian Ambassador to the US, and current Deputy Chairman of TD Bank.

He has the cred, both politically and economically to blow everyone else out of the water.

Frankly, he would have done so in 2006 had he chosen to run, deciding instead to step aside, later taking the TD gig.

This race will be shaped by him, and whether he gives it a go this time around. If he does not, I expect Rae or Ignatieff to take the mantle handily.

This seems like very much a re-do of the disastrous 2006 choice, with Dion obviously not around to swipe it this time.

The leadership choice will be made in May of 2009 in Vancouver (yay, my home city) and it will lay the groundwork for the Liberal Party for what I think will be at least the next decade, as two disastrous choices in a row could doom them to obscurity (If Dion hasn't already done so).

The Liberals are in serious need of a kick-start, as they have died as a party in BC, finishing fourth in most ridings behind even the Greens, getting knocked around badly in Quebec and losing ground in Ontario.

They also are very much in need of an overhaul in the way they fundraise, as Harper and the Tories absolutely killed them in the financial race this cycle, allowing them to run attack ad after attack ad and basically assassinate Stephane Dion's character before he really even got rolling.

Liberals can cry all they want about the right wing propoganda machine killing them this cycle, but that is part of the game, and if they can't hold their ground in that part of the game, they will lose every single time.

No one likes attack ads, but they work, and the Liberals need to recognize the reality of the situation.

You can whine, or you can win, and whether it's Ignatieff, Rae, McKenna, Cauchon, Kennedy, Hall-Findley or someone else, they need to go on the offensive as soon as they take the keys, or the Liberals will be looking for a new leader once again in a few years.