The Age of Iggy

Bob Rae officially dropped out of the race to succeed Stephane Dion as leader of the federal Liberals, clearing the way for his old college roommate (Google it, it's true), Michael Ignatieff to lead the way.

So, here we come to the Age of Iggy. Will it be successful? Maybe, but I think we can all say with some confidence that it will be better than the epic fail of Dion.

There are many things to be done, and little time to do them in.

The Liberals need to get a grassroots fund raising operation moving, or the next attempt to cut of public financing of political parties could simply kill them off altogether.

They have to make themselves relevant to people outside of Ontario/Quebec that are under 35, as they were basically shut out west of the Manitoba-Ontario border. There was a handful of seats, but the West is turning solid blue, and that trend needs to be reversed or at least stunted for the Liberals to have any kind of viability going into the future.

Although, there is one thing that trumps these problems, and that is the prospect of a coalition government. Not surprisingly, as it was controlled by the Liberals, the coalition proposal was rolled out very badly, and the public seems to be turning against it. Personally I think it would be better for Canada, as they would actually govern with other parties and interests in mind other than their own. That being said, the idea of Prime Minister Dion was a large part of what killed the deal.

Now that part of the equation has been erased, I'm still not convinced that a coalition under Ignatieff would be any more palatable to the public.

The Liberals have kind of backed their way into a corner with this one, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Basically they have put themselves in a place where they can't really support a budget that doesn't meet their exact specifications, as they've shown the willingness to take this thing to the mat, and if they turned away from toppling the government or voting them out, it would look like the only time they want to take action 'for Canada', is when they would benefit from it. Same goes for the NDP and the Bloc.

The only thing we can hope for is Harper makes some concessions and the Liberals are at least able to credibly say it was a compromise deal. It does look like Harper is striking a more conciliatory tone in the last day or so, pledging to work with the other parties to make Parliament, well, work.

I've heard and seen this show before, so until I see a consensus budget, with input from all parties, Harper's words will still ring hollow to me.

Now, if the Liberals fail, we're looking at a Harper majority, without a doubt. If an election was held today, they would easily go over the hump into majority territory, due to the bungled coalition roll-out.

As I've written on here before, I also think that Iggy basically has the task of saving the Liberals from complete and utter obscurity, which is where they will reside if Harper ever takes the majority reigns.

The bottom line is that Canada needs to work, and every party, not just Harper, but every party needs to cooperate, and govern this land with good faith towards the other parties.

I know minorities are contentious, and the next election is always right around the corner, and policy-making in a minority situation tends to lean more towards electioneering than actual governance, but heading into a recession, and possible depression without the right steps, this is not the time to try and cut a political opponent off at the knees while (metaphorically) Rome burns in the background.

Ignatieff himself is an interesting candidate, just based on the fact that he was out of the country for decades at a time teaching at Harvard, and only returned a few years ago to run for office and the leadership.

I can see this going one of two ways, and it depends on controlling the narrative.

Harper has shown himself to be very adept at this part of the game, and the Liberals have, well, been the exact opposite, tripping over themselves and whining about attack ads when they should have been firing back with vigour.

If Ignatieff is framed as an elitist, Canada-abandoning candidate, out of touch with Canadian interests, this thing is over before it even starts.

The Liberals need to highlight that we're talking about a Harvard professor here, a very intelligent man, and one untainted by previous Liberal scandals and mismanagement.

It all comes down to the message, and if things keep on the same track we've seen, there will be Ignatieff attack ads out there tomorrow. They need to hit back hard, and right away, fighting the negative narrative wherever and whenever they can.

Dion, frankly, was a wimp, and was seen as such from almost the minute he stepped atop the party. That was because of a sustained media effort by the Conservative Party, that the Liberals could not counter for the life of them.

Harper defined Dion.

Ignatieff needs to define himself, or he'll be in the scrapheap next to Stephane and the party very, very shortly.

I Know It's Been a While...

It's been a while since I posted, even about the epic, dramatic and world-altering election of Barack Obama, so the question begs...why?

Basically it boils down to a lack of time, a lack of a home computer, and a recovery from the orgy of politics I've been swimming through for the last 2+ years.

I can't promise a coherent, regular posting schedule, but I can promise my full effort and weight behind anything I do put out there.

I hope to do a couple pieces on Canadian politics in the coming hours / days, as we look to be on the verge of either a coalition government of Liberals and New Democrats, or yet another election.

There is also the Cabinet picks of Mr. President-elect to mull over, although I will be perfectly honest and admit I don't know who too many of these people are, because their time in the sun, back with the Clintons, was when I was still in my early teens, and not into politics in the least, let alone digging through qualifications for Cabinet picks.

In any sense, I do hope to get more out there more often, but only time will tell.

The Liberal Leadership : The Race, and the New Political Reality

With Stephane Dion resigning this past Monday as leader of the Liberal Party, (thank God) it opens up a new race for the person that will succeed him and lead the Grits into the next election, and hopefully further.

There are already contenders floating around, even as Dion's gravestone is still being carved.

Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, the two from which the last leader should have been chosen, will almost certainly be in the running once again, as their leadership campaign machines are still warm under the hood from the last race. Both of these two, as last time, have even-to-better odds of being the next leader in 2009. Hopefully we don't see another dark horse backroom deal like the one that screwed both of these men in 2006. If they lose, they lose, but Dion pulled 18% on the first ballot in '06 and ended up the leader. That stinks worse than roadkill on a 40 degree day.

Today, Martin Cauchon, a member from the Chretien era, has said he may also consider tossing his hat into the ring, citing the need for a 'generational change'. He is experienced in government, a former Cabinet minister, and is only in his late 40s, well under the 60-plus years of both Ignatieff and Rae. He could have a shot, but with Dion doing so badly, mostly based on his communication skills, I find it hard to believe the Liberals would appoint another Francophone to their leadership. Aside from that, his age and experience would both be tremendous assets. We'll see where that goes, but I'm labelling him as a long shot for now.

There are also some other repeat candidates, aside from Rae and Ignatieff.

Gerard Kennedy, the man that gave us Stephane Dion is likely to run again, as is Martha Hall Findley, who may find herself on better footing this time around than last, as she is now a sitting MP. Same with Kennedy.

They are still considered very long-shot tries and if either wins, I will be stunned, but in that same sense, who saw Dion as viable last time?

The most intriguing of all the candidates, at least in my mind, is Frank McKenna, the former premier of New Brunswick, Canadian Ambassador to the US, and current Deputy Chairman of TD Bank.

He has the cred, both politically and economically to blow everyone else out of the water.

Frankly, he would have done so in 2006 had he chosen to run, deciding instead to step aside, later taking the TD gig.

This race will be shaped by him, and whether he gives it a go this time around. If he does not, I expect Rae or Ignatieff to take the mantle handily.

This seems like very much a re-do of the disastrous 2006 choice, with Dion obviously not around to swipe it this time.

The leadership choice will be made in May of 2009 in Vancouver (yay, my home city) and it will lay the groundwork for the Liberal Party for what I think will be at least the next decade, as two disastrous choices in a row could doom them to obscurity (If Dion hasn't already done so).

The Liberals are in serious need of a kick-start, as they have died as a party in BC, finishing fourth in most ridings behind even the Greens, getting knocked around badly in Quebec and losing ground in Ontario.

They also are very much in need of an overhaul in the way they fundraise, as Harper and the Tories absolutely killed them in the financial race this cycle, allowing them to run attack ad after attack ad and basically assassinate Stephane Dion's character before he really even got rolling.

Liberals can cry all they want about the right wing propoganda machine killing them this cycle, but that is part of the game, and if they can't hold their ground in that part of the game, they will lose every single time.

No one likes attack ads, but they work, and the Liberals need to recognize the reality of the situation.

You can whine, or you can win, and whether it's Ignatieff, Rae, McKenna, Cauchon, Kennedy, Hall-Findley or someone else, they need to go on the offensive as soon as they take the keys, or the Liberals will be looking for a new leader once again in a few years.

Election Live Blogging : Fortier Loses Again

Michel Fortier, the unelected member of Stephen Harper's cabinet, who lost his last race and was appointed to the Senate to be able to serve in Cabinet, has lost again.

Does anyone think Harper will pull the same stunt again for the man he clearly wanted in that seat?

Fortier already resigned his Senate seat to run, so my guess would be no. Then again, who thought Harper would have done such a thing anyways?

Lots more to come from this election night.

Looks like another Conservative minority, with little movement seat-wise.

The question tomorrow morning may not be who won, but why we just spent $300 million dollars on what amounts to the status quo.

There wasn't much need for an election, outside of Harper's bare ambition for a majority, and it looks like he will not get it yet again...

The World Changes This Fall -- For Better or Worse is Up to Us

The electoral maps are shifting like crazy right now, with Obama booming and Harper falling, and I couldn't be happier about either one.

Economy, economy, economy. The one issue people care about, here, and down South. The one thing that affects everyone, and the one thing that Conservatives and Republicans lose on every single time.

Whenever the economy starts to trend down, people turn to the left to resurrect it.

The most striking example, and one that has an immense parallel to today would be FDR's election in the midst of the Depression. The New Deal came along after he stepped in, and revolutionized the way the government does business, and the values of an entire nation.

The same opportunities lie bare right now in the US, and even to an extent here.

Stephane Dion is no FDR, and at best a poor man's Obama, but his Green Shift would bring a dramatic, future-reaching change to the Canadian economy that is desperately needed right now.

I am not comfy with the thought of Dion being the face of Canada, but on his policy proposals alone, the man will change us for the better. Not to get too far deep into the Green Shift, but as I have ranted in the past in this space, and others, flipping our economy to be Green-based, with innovations and Canadian-made green technology that we can then go sell and market abroad would make us akin to oil powers in today's age, like Saudi Arabia. It will create green collar jobs, and we will then be on the cutting edge of technology the entire globe will be using in a few decades. We will control patents, and be able to provide our economy with a stable, renewable, clean base for the next ten generations, as opposed to the dirty, fluctuating and unstable footing we and the previous few have stood on.

Ok, Green Shift / carbon tax rant over.

In terms of Obama, there is nothing overarching like a Green Shift, but with promises to invest in those very same technologies in the US, like wind, solar, etc, he is also putting his country on the same footing, and looking to the future, not staying mired in the present and past of carbon-based economic models.

That, along with ambitious healthcare proposals, ending the war in Iraq, giving the middle class back their country and taking it from the 1% that George W let it be consolidated into will fundamentally change how Americans see their country, and therefore the beliefs that country reflects, and it can only be viewed as for the better, because it cannot get any worse than it is right now.

In the face of the economic issues that he helped to propagate, Johnny Mac has really done nothing but flounder and flip flop his way through the last few weeks, watching his polling numbers sink almost in tune with the stock market.

Now we have William Ayers on the political map again because of it, as Johnny figured out he simply cannot win on economics, and desperately needs a change in subject. This crap was tried and failed badly in the primaries, and it will do so on this stage as well.

McCain is behind in several key states, and even some that should be on lockdown. All the so-called battleground states, like Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Nevada, all show 10+ leads for Obama in the polls, something that cannot be explained away by margins of error, or anything else other than he is WINNING.

Plain and simple, he is winning, and only electoral fraud or god forbid, assassination is going to stop this man from sitting in the White House January 20, 2009.

On that front, the McCain-Palin ticket is beginning to race-bait, starting a few days ago by inciting crowds to a frenzy, to the point where they have yelled out, 'Kill him', 'terrorist', and 'Off with his head', obviously referencing the junior Senator from Illinois. Is it just me, or is this seriously dangerous territory to be running on? The noble maverick-y candidate has clearly lost that honor he touts so frequently, if he ever really had it in the first place. Clearly the memories of the sting of George W's baseless attacks in 2000 have faded away, replaced by a hunger to win at all costs.

Obama is projecting out at 350+ on some electoral maps, and at least 300+ on some of the less ambitious or gutsy pollsters (270 to win). Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com, the single best polling site out there, has Obama winning 9/10 times in his electoral predictions, which all through the primaries proved to be about as rock-solid as can be.

It has never looked better for the good Senator in the 20 months he has been in this game, and I have a sneaky suspicion that trend will continue on through November 4.

Back to Canada, before we close.

Harper's poll numbers have been dwindling in the past week or so, down to the point where Dion is nearing the margin or error.

My belief is that his drop is two-fold. First, people are watching him brush off the economic crisis as nothing more than background noise, while watching the economy of the country where 80% of our exports go completely tank. If they have issues with liquidity, and being able to buy anything, let alone import our lumber and other commodities, who do you think is going to feel the pain first?

Harper has shown little to no leadership here, repeating over and over that the Canadian economy is strong. Platitudes and words are all well and good, but I want contingency plans, I want clear visions of what we can do if the US gets into really serious trouble. We get nothing but essentially this : 'Nah, don't worry about it, we're cool'. That doesn't suffice from a Prime Minister.

The second of those two folds is Dion, who has been coming on strong, starting in the English debate, where he actually showed he has the chops to stand toe-to-toe with Harper on the issues of the day.

I find this is what worried people, and myself, the most about a Dion government, that he would be a little weakling drip. I think he has shown that's not the case, and the only thing left is whether people get on board with the Green Shift, which is not a foregone conclusion by any sense.

Dion still has a communication problem, and with a complex, tax-shifting policy, that is a serious issue. I still don't think he will end up being Prime Minister, but if he can stem the Conservative flow to a majority, he's good in my books.

Jack has run strong so far, but he will never be PM with that orange albatross around his neck. Same with Elizabeth May, except hers is tinged Green. Both of these two are more effective communicators, and better leaders than Stephane Dion, and yet, they chose parties that can never actually govern.

Ideological people are great, and the people that end up really caring enough to effect change in the end, but at some point, you have to see the only path to 24 Sussex is a little red / blue road, not orange or green.

We are days away from Canada's choice, and about three weeks from the US's. This is special ground my friends (sorry to steal the line Johnny ;)), and this time in politics will be talked about and studied for a long time into the future.

Game-changing, ground-breaking, paradigm-altering races.

I'm just glad I'm around to take it all in.

Election Tidbits - Greens Shut Out, Harper and Layton Fast Out of the Gate, Dion Lags

It looks like Elizabeth May and the Greens are going to be shut out of another leaders debate. The decision was made today by a group of Canadian television broadcasters who actually run the debates on their airwaves to only host the Conservative, Liberal, NDP and Bloc parties for the two debates slated for early October.

Unlike all the other times, this time I actually feel they should be there.

They are a legitimate national party now. They are not viable to form any kind of government, but neither is the NDP or the Bloc. They are running candidates in every single riding across the country, except one, which is a product of the ill-advised deal Stephane Dion made with May to not run candidates in each others ridings. (This works just fine for May, but as May herself is running against Peter Mackay, Dion might be thinking twice about not being able to run a candidate against the Foreign Minister) Also, as of the dissolution of Parliament, they actually had a sitting MP, as the near-disgraced, now-cleared but shunned by his former Liberals MP Blair Wilson had switched to Green stripes.

Maybe the Greens should have been let in last time, or the one before, but this time around, they have national prominence, and cannot be denied. More importantly, their main party issue should be injected into our national discourse in a major way.

May and the Greens are taking legal action to hopefully force their way onto the national stage. They've been doing a damn good job of it for over a decade now, and I hope the trend continues sometime in the next few weeks.

-------------------

Jack Layton and Stephen Harper really jumped out of the starting blocks of the national campaign today, hitting hard on issues and trying to define their opponents, campaigns and themselves.

Stephane Dion on the other hand, has had more of a...slow start on the race.

His campaign plane will not be ready for another few weeks, even though this election had been on the horizon since the moment he sat for the first time as Liberal leader in Parliament. He is to be on a bus tour for the time in between, and began today with a rally in Montreal.

As you can see from a 24 Hours review of the event here , it didn't seem to lack too much punch and enthusiasm.

This is going to be a tough campaign for Dion just based on the issues (Green Shift), let alone having to battle problems with energizing his Liberal base and the electorate. This is a very uphill battle, and Dion started with a thud.

Harper, on the other hand, has been issuing election-style commercials for a few weeks now, and peppering Canadian mailboxes with fliers about leadership, the environment, crime, and all the other issues of the day. They have a big head start on the hearts and minds campaign, as the Harper commercials have been effective, showing ordinary people praising Harper's policies, and the man himself.



On a side note, I saw the first Liberal ad of the campaign, and it was highly unimpressive. It didn't seem to have a clear point, didn't convince anyone about the Green Shift, throwing out a bunch of cliche lines about creating jobs and making our economy stronger, without offering specifics. It closed with a very bad, grainy shot of Dion saying something about why he respects Canada. I say again, THUD.

(Note: I searched for a good 20 minutes trying to find the Liberal Party's ad on YouTube, but could not, and ironically, every search with the keywords 'liberal' 'party' 'election' 'ad' 'Canada' '2008', etc, ended up pulling up the Stephen Harper leadership commercials for the first 3-4 hits. Dion is losing the viral campaign already, and with this generation possibly going to the polls, that is a very necessary chord to hit)

Layton gave a fiery speech in Vancouver today, hitting the Conservatives hard on their environmental and social policies. Jack is trying to be the Canadian Obama, preaching about being the candidate of 'change', and right away, it seems to be working for him. He has the populist cred to run this kind of campaign, and with him paying no attention to Dion and all his attention to Harper, in a year where people seem to be largely apathetic towards Dion, and not entirely comfortable with Stephen Harper having a majority, he could steal a lot of left-leaning voters.

I honestly think we will end up in another Conservative minority government, but if Dion flubs, or people are not comfortable enough with him, or Jack, then it could lead to a big Conservative slide.

Jack has opportunities, so does Harper, and the Liberals are just trying to hang on.

Ahhh, feels like 2006 all over again.

I do also think this will be Dion's only election as leader, and he will be subtly, or not so subtly, pushed to the side after the almost assured loss. I think everyone that leans left of Bush in this country (Which would be the type of policies Stephen Harper in a majority setting would emulate to the fullest) is just hoping he doesn't blow it and condemn us to absolute rule by the Conservative Party, and then we'll move on to someone more capable of winning an election. Someone like Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae, two men who should have been the last two in the leadership contest before Dion and Gerard Kennedy pulled their backstage deal to swipe the leadership away.

That aside, I have heard many people say in this cycle they will not vote Liberal or NDP, they will simply vote non-Conservative. Whatever works in their riding to ensure that seat is not held by a Conservative MP is what their vote is pointed towards. That concept will likely decide the makeup of our next Parliament more than anything the leaders have to say over the next 5 weeks, because with the polls showing a near tie amongst the Liberals and Conservatives, not many opinions are likely to change in just over a month, no matter how heavy the rhetoric and how prosperous the policy proposals are.

Federal Election in October All But Assured After Harper and Dion Meet and Decide They Cannot Play Nice

Along with the attention-grabbing US election, it looks like Canadians are also going to go to the polls this fall.

Stephane Dion came out of a meeting with Stephen Harper at 24 Sussex Drive this afternoon and announced to reporters that there was going to be a fall campaign, because he wouldn't give Harper a "blank cheque to govern".

Everyone seems to be on board this time, unlike the near misses in the past.

Dion has been Liberal leader for almost 2 years now, and apparently has been backed into enough of a corner to have at least the appearance of growing a set. Harper seems to be more than willing to violate his own fixed election date law that sets our next federal election for 2009. Jack Layton responded to that move by saying essentially that if Harper wants to quit his job he'll be first in line to apply for it. Gilles Duceppe has pledged to hold a confidence vote, with or without any support.

So here we are folks, ready to mark ballots again.

The competing themes will be leadership from the Conservative side, and the Green Shift policy put forth by Dion.

I would go over the NDP and Bloc approaches, but those haven't changed much. For the NDP, bitch about anything that gets traction, and for the Bloc, bitch about not getting enough support from Ottawa even though you want to separate entirely. Oh, and the Greens, how could I forget? Bitch about the environment and run your leader against one of the highest profile Conservatives in a safe, deep blue riding. Smmmart.

I've actually been meaning to write about the outreach I've been seeing in my mailbox from the Conservative party for a while now, so this seems as good a spot as any to do so.

I have now gotten 4 separate mailers from the Conservatives, about Strong Leadership, Youth Crime, Senate Reform and Clean Air.

They are all stacked with facts, figures, policy standpoints, and imagery that is thought-provoking. Me and my fiancee had a separate conversation each time one of them came in the mail, sparking conversation about the Conservative stances. On leadership and Senate reform, I found myself on the Conservative side of things, which is an odd sensation to say the least.

I do think Harper is a stronger national and international player for Canadian interests than Stephane Dion would be. I don't care for Harper's policies when it comes to free trade and relations with the Bush Administration, but I can take some good with the bad, especially when compared with Paul Martin's Panderbear foreign and domestic policies.

On the Senate, I've been on the reforming train for as long as I have understood the Canadian political process. In no modern democracy should we have an unelected, highly paid, patronage-infested body, which serves almost no purpose other than to rubber stamp. The Senate as is, is nothing more than a money pit which lends itself to cronyism, as all members are essentially there as a reward for a career of party loyalty. This does not jive with a functional democracy. There does need to be a check on Parliament, as we cannot have one sole elected body, especially with a majority government, as that setup is essentially a dictatorship anyways.

We need a Senate that represents all areas of the country equally, with 2 or 3 members for each province, with elections that run opposite Parliamentary cycles.

That is plain and simple, but Dion does not agree, as the Liberals have a heavy majority in our unelected chamber, due to being the governing party an overwhelming majority of the time in Canadian history. Most Canadians are on the side of reform, some on abolishment, but I do not see too many advocating for the status quo on this one.

I'm not saying I agree with the information as a whole, and definitely not on punishing our youth harder as opposed to rehabilitating them, or that Harper is on the right side of the climate change argument, despite his attempts, but the point is they are providing information, and the Liberals are not.

The Conservatives have also debuted a series of commercials to define Harper as a strong leader for Canada, and surprisingly, they don't take shots at Dion, they're simple record pieces on Harper to show people he is the best leader for Canada right now. They are with ordinary people; blue collar workers and soccer moms, listing with emotion and certainty the Conservative accomplishments since in power, and how those accomplishments helped their daily lives and made them feel safer.

Harper does still have a sizable 'creepy problem', as shown in the closing seconds of the ad, when he is sitting down, perched forward with his elbows on his knees, wearing a sweater, and smiling into the camera. It doesn't seem normal, and honestly, it gives me the willies. All in all though, he is in people's hearts and minds more than Dion, by a long shot.

Dion, as detailed in a previous article, available off the right side of this page, has a serious communication issue, as even after 2 years, most Canadians don't know or trust him enough to mark Liberal in their riding come October.

There are of course areas that will remain Liberal until the day this country dies, but there are a lot of battleground-type areas available for either side, with the NDP spoiling a race here or there.

BC is a big toss up, with a left-leaning, green-based ideology perfectly suited to swing Liberal. I've lived here my whole life, and I still cannot understand why the majority of BC seats are as blue as the sky. Partially it is a symptom of the incompetent provincial NDP party, as people have trouble dividing federal parties from their essentially unaffiliated provincial brethren.

But aside from that, it comes down to delivery, to speaking to people's concerns everywhere, not just in Southern Ontario and across the St Lawrence seaway.

Harper can and will nab Alberta easily, but with a concerted effort, a few of those seats further West can swing the other way.

Dion must spend the next two months connecting with people, traveling coast to coast and convincing them that his Green Shift is the way to go for the country.

The Conservatives have spent almost their entire time in power trying to build up their cred on green issues, but it all has rung rather hollow, leaving Dion the opportunity he needs to kick the door in to a serious electoral advantage. Dion needs to hit that note, and hit it hard, convincing people not only is his plan the way to go, but that environmental issues are the most pressing of our time. His whole policy book is built around the Green Shift, so people need to see the environment as above their pocketbook, because that is where the Green Shift is going to hit them.

Dion has said the Shift will be revenue neutral, but that isn't the kind of language that people are going to get in line with everywhere, especially with Harper hammering home the fact that it is a tax increase, leaving aside the incentives and tax cuts elsewhere. As I have said previously, the Green Shift is not an effective campaign strategy, although it is likely a great governing strategy. Hard truths are not easy to campaign on, especially when you have communication and trust issues with the electorate.

The Conservatives are hitting home with their mailers and ads, and Dion needs to jump on this before it is too late. Leadership will be the question, as it always is, but Dion's supposed test of leadership will be defined by how people view the Green Shift. If they don't agree, then Dion and the Liberals are in serious trouble, and Harper might get the majority government he so craves.

We'll find out in the next two months what the Canadian people see as the best road forward, and during that time, we will also see the most dynamic and important US Presidential election ever held.

For pols, such as myself, the fall season isn't going to be about new shows, it's going to be about policy proposals and politics at the highest levels. It's going to be busy, and I'm going to be loving every minute of it.

Finally! : After 5 Years, UN Takes Action on Sudan

Sudan has been something that has horrified anyone that even had a cursory understanding of the situation for over 5 years now.

Now we have found out what everyone suspected all along, that the Khartoum government was sponsoring and planning the genocide from its highest levels. A high level commander in the janjaweed militia now says that their actions : raping, pillaging, killing and burning villages in the Darfur region, was straight from Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir.

We all knew this was likely the case, but now there is confirmation, and as this person spilling the beans is a high level commander, it just makes the information carry that much more weight.

There were two other major news pieces on Sudan this week as well.

There is now evidence to confirm that China has played a significant role in aiding the genocide militarily, as Chinese military vehicles have been spotted in use on both sides of the conflict. Leaving all moral conflicts aside from helping this sort of movement along, this contravenes a 2005 UN ban on military aid to the Sudanese government. With a recent move to 'not anger China', this will likely go to the wayside, but in the larger sense of the court of public opinion, China's direct support for the Darfur genocide is now on record.

Also, the UN War Crimes Tribunal is likely going to try the leaders of the African nation for war crimes at the Hague for their role in the slaughter.

So, after 5 years of inaction, while it was the cause celebre of the celebrities and non-body hair shaving activists everywhere, we have some solid results on Sudan.

None of this means the genocide will stop, as this news isn't a major change of pace from what we already understood about the conflict. But what it does mean is that countries, such as Canada, can take action now, with hard evidence showing the crimes of Khartoum.

Being bogged down in Afghanistan may prevent us from really stepping up, it just makes it harder for Omar Hassan al-Bashir to continue to deny help from the African Union or the UN to stop the violence.

Sudan is a complex situation, and it will require a lot more than words and empty threats to make the changes that are needed. I think the same is true for Zimbabwe.

The western world largely turns a blind eye to continent as a whole, and only slightly turns a head when millions are dying in horrible and savage conditions. This conflict and the new details about it, seem to have finally broke through and reached a point where people really give a shit, and are prepared to take action.

I hope so, and I hope the war crimes charges stick, I hope China is censured, and I hope we never have to discuss this kind of topic ever again.

But then again, when have 'millions displaced, hundreds of thousands killed' ever really made a meaningful difference in the future?

Remember Rwanda? We said never again. And then we let it happen again.



We need to act. It is just that simple.

G8 Summit : Loooowwwerred Expectaaaatttions...

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Environment Minister John Baird dampened expectations for wide-ranging deals on basically anything at the upcoming G8 Summit in Japan.

There are too many to list off, but climate change and the world economy are the two heavy hitters right now. Environment, at least, is getting pushed back before it evens begins to take hold as an issue, with Baird stating we all have to wait about 18 months, until Fall / Winter 2009 in Denmark, where the next major UN climate change conference will be held.

Yasuo Fukuda, the PM of Japan and host of the summit, wanted to set an agenda to halve greenhouse gases by 2050, at the very least. This was immediately rebuffed by the US, as always. Fukuda declined to say specifically if the US was blocking a deal, but if they weren't Baird and Harper probably would have made the ol' college try themselves.

There are other opportunities for climate change discussions, Baird stated, saying essentially that Canada could build momentum at the G8 for Copenhagen in '09. This seems like the usual right-wing 'stall on climate change until we're out of power' routine, but there are actual opportunities for discussion here, as emerging economic powers like China, India and Brazil will be attending, with a contingent of African nations as well.

I see nothing meaningful coming out of these meetings in terms of climate change, because the biggest polluter, the US, is seeing it's most unpopular President out of power this year, and his final months will not be spent on climate change. They will be spent trying in his own halfassed way to broker peace in the Middle East in Israel / Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond.

Nothing else matters, and nothing else will be accomplished before the US inaugurates its next President.

On the global economic front, there is more ideological games to be played, as the conservative leaning leaders are pushing deregulation and free trade as a way to shore up flagging economies. As has been shown with Mr. Bush, who deregulated the financial industry at home and signed free trade deals with anyone that would scrawl their name next to his, conservative ideology no longer applies, and never really did.

As with climate change, with Bush riding out of power, nothing will be accomplished. The US will continue bungling around, maybe send out another rebate cheque and bomb Iran before November. That's about it.

The last thing on the docket, apparently, is Robert Mugabe and Zimbabwe, one of the more successful despots there has been in Africa, in terms of keeping his iron grip on power even with one of the worst economies in all of human history. I'm sure many have heard and read about the one man elections and intimidated opposition dropouts. There seems to be a video out now as well, which shows vote rigging in the election held a few weeks ago. Why there was vote rigging in a one-man election I don't know.

The point is, and Harper actually said this the other day, to have 'one voice' from the G8 criticizing Mugabe, and further pressuring him to either step down or allow foreign intervention to have free and fair elections, where Mugabe would likely get trounced.

That may be an easy way to show progress in this G8 Summit, because in place of all the things that actually matter, such as war, economy, climate change, HIV, etc, etc, we are going to get an empty threat to a dictator who likely will ignore it and continue in power until he dies.

Awesome.

As the title says, these guys really know how to do Loooowwwerred Expectaaaatttions... :



........................

Maybe I'm a tad cynical this morning, and this piece may have been a little more biting than intended, but seeing inaction in the face of so many challenges is rather aggravating. And when I get aggravated, like Hulk, I SMASH....well not really, I write political articles, I don't really smash a thing.....

Dion's Delivery Failure -- And No, I'm Not Talking Emails Here

As you can tell by the last article I posted up, I am in favor of a carbon tax to address the problems of climate change.

Now, this support of the BC plan does not mean I support the idea across the board.

Here we come to the point of this post, which is Stephane Dion's proposed federal carbon tax. It has been hammered from the start, much like the BC Liberals plan, from all sides. There is a reason why though, and it points towards a huge part of Dion's overall problem as Liberal leader.

Delivery.

The BC Liberals delivered their carbon tax with hard-set plans to offset the tax through tax cuts and dividend cheques. It hasn't quelled the furor, but when people actually get down to it, and look at their paystubs, hopefully the message finally hits home, and I don't have to convince person after person, some who I view as extremely bright, that the carbon tax is not akin to Satan rising up from the depths of Hell to swallow children.

That aside, Dion did not deliver his carbon tax in any way that would have been palatable. He introduced it flippantly, without a plan to show why it would be revenue neutral, and has been shooting himself in the foot with the details ever since.

There are some plans in place now, with hard prices per tonne of carbon ($10 in the first year, rising to $40 by the fourth year). There will be tax increases of around $15 billion on the highest fossil fuel consumers and carbon emitters, and it will be offset by around $15 billion in tax cuts, which trickle mostly to lower and middle income families who will feel most tightly squeezed by the new rules.

From CBC.ca :

• A 1.5 percentage point rate reduction for the lowest tax bracket (the first $37,885 of taxable income), to 13.5 per cent from 15.
• A one percentage point rate reduction for the second-lowest tax bracket ($37,885-$75,769), to 21 per cent from 22.
• A one percentage point rate reduction for the bracket between $75,769 and $123,184, to 25 per cent from 26.

There is also set to be a supplement of $1225 to low income families with kids under 18, by the fourth year, there will be a $350 child tax credit every year, and rural taxpayers would receive a $150 dividend cheque every year.

Dion predicts a family of four with an income of $60,000 / year will actually end up saving $1300 a year under these types of programs, even though their fuel costs will have risen.

Dion has also pledged that gas prices will not rise due to his new tax, which I personally find to be the most troubling part of the whole idea. Basically the justification for this belief is that oil and gas companies are already making tremendous profits off our backs, so they wouldn't translate the new tax over to the pump.

If I may, let me just say, bullshit. Absolute bullshit. The large oil and gas producers have already translated higher costs of oil down to us, at a rate higher than what the actual cost of a barrel of oil is rising. They have shown no remorse in raping everyone at the pump up until now, so where is the belief that they will magically stop? This tax is targeted to make their industry more expensive to run, and eventually either force them to diversify or die. If I'm in that position, I'm probably not going to be too peachy about going along and making the plan easier to swallow.

Gas prices will likely rise nationally, and Dion will have to account for it, or risk losing the whole argument up front.

The most major part, as with BC, in selling this kind of plan, is to make it 'revenue neutral'. Ah, there's that lovely buzzword again. He has pledged to make it so, and to have the Auditor General do a review every year to ensure that commitment continues to hold water.

Dion has said flat-out that within four years of his new system, costs for a regular, median household in Canada would rise $225-$250. Home heating costs will jump up to 8%. But as those increases will be offset by tax cuts, we're all good right? Wrong.

The most vocal critic of this plan has obviously been Stephen Harper, who is a much better communicator and politician than the BC carbon tax's main opponent, Carole James of the NDP. The fact that Harper can communicate his opposition, and basically Western Canada's opposition to Dion's plan so well may doom it from the start. Harper can deliver his ideas, Dion cannot.

I may not like Dion's style, but he seems to be rather ballsy when it comes to something he believes in. He has said flat-out this tax will hurt Saskatchewan and Alberta most (Alberta obviously, but Saskatchewan due to a high number of coal-fired power plants) and now he is touring there to sell / convince skeptics. If nothing else, this may push Dion's timid and tepid image to the back burner a bit.

The carbon tax. Yes, we need it. Yes, it will help us in the end, even though it may be painful now. Yes, BC, and Canada can be world leaders in green technology.

The problem is that it is long term. Our politics, mindsets, society, is all instant. Instant gratification, quick money and real-time results is what we thrive on, and it is not what the carbon tax gives us.

This is why, in the end, I am labeling Dion's ideas good, but his delivery of them as absolutely craptacular. The carbon tax is something you push through when already in power (see Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals), not something to campaign upon. You campaign on those short-term, positive sounding ideas that sell you and your government to the people, then you start the wide-ranging, long term policies once in office.

This is fairly fundamental in our politics, but it is something Dion doesn't seem to grasp.

It's all about the message, where, when and how it is communicated.

In short, my friends, it is about the delivery, something Dion needs to learn if he has a hope in hell of selling his carbon tax, and the Liberals as a whole to Canada.

Bilateral Civil Assistance Plan

There was an agreement signed on February 14, 2008, between U.S. Air Force Gen. Gene Renuart, commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, and Canadian Air Force Lt.-Gen. Marc Dumais, commander of Canada Command, that essentially ended Canada’s stint as a free and independent country.

It is called, as this article is entitled, the 'Bilateral Civil Assistance Plan'. What this agreement does is allow American troops to operate on Canadian soil in times of civil emergency, and vice versa. I can't think of a circumstance where the US would ask us to step in, but with the depleted numbers of their own National Guard due to the war in Iraq, maybe it is a possibility.

Either way, this kind of agreement, signed with smiles, as you can see if you like by clicking on the title, which will take you to the US Northern Command site, is dangerous in so many ways I'm thinking if I should check and see if there's a word limit on Blogger before I get really into this.

We're losing sovereignty, straight up. I don't know about the rest of you, but watching the US operate on the world stage for the last 8 years doesn't instill too much trust in them not abusing this agreement and taking it in ways it was never originally intended (see, Original UN Iraq Resolution)

Who defines this 'emergency'?

Say for example, the Canadian Prime Minister is assassinated, everything is in chaos, we have no clear number 2 because of a ridiculously outdated political system, the US steps in to 'lend assistance' during the crisis. Bingo Bango, we've got a 'friend' who won't get the hell out of our country.

The US has plenty of fingers in plenty of friendly pies, and it will be over my dead body before those fingers are in ours. I know we have been bought out piece by piece by US companies, our culture is dominated by that from the South of us, and our current government panders to the Bush administration like an underachieving child to an overbearing father, but US troops, in our streets, 'keeping the peace' is more than I could handle.

That is just one of many different scenarios that would be made out to be justifiable in such a circumstance, as any logical and realistic person knows the US would love to have our resources and space for their own uses. We have always resisted them at every turn from complete and utter domination, but this agreement sets all that back dramatically.

We have laws in place to preserve 'Canadianism', culturally, requiring so much Canadian content on our radio and airwaves, but is that really enough?

The most troubling aspect of this entire agreement, leaving out everything mentioned, is that it was never even brought up in the House of Commons, let alone debated and passed by a plurality of elected members. The same goes for the US Congress. Not a whiff of this passed through there either. And it was not released to the press, and was actually suppressed by the Canadian government from coming to light.

This is a major treaty, changing the way we define our borders and how we allow other nations to operate within them. This fundamentally alters Canadian sovereignty forever. And no one knows it even happened.

I will be lobbying my Member of Parliament, Bill Siksay of the NDP, to at least raise this issue in the House, and have the Prime Minister and the Conservative government answer for their actions and their secrecy. I recommend you do the same if you at all care about maintaining Canada as a free and independent nation. Links to each party, where you can find your MP, and for US readers, your Member of Congress, are located on the right side. We need to raise this issue now, because it seems like our governments are completely unwilling to.

Find Your Member of Parliament

Find your Member of Congress

Straddling the Fence on Smoking

I live in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, and I am a smoker. I also work in the city, in an office, with tight little old-style streets outside.

The reason I'm sharing this is not so that all several of you that have clicked through my thoughts on here can come and shower me with praise. I mean, that would be great, but I'm not expecting anything. The reason is because on March 31, 2008, Vancouver essentially became a city where smoking in public is no longer allowed.

They haven't made smoking illegal, or anything like that, far too much tax revenue is derived from cigarettes to make them completely unavailable. This is a point I'll come back to, because it's central to the whole idea of what we're talking about here.

The new law put in place stipulates that the following are now illegal, and I'm quoting right from the Government of BC's website here :

- Smoking in all indoor public spaces and work places, with exemptions made for the ceremonial use of tobacco by Aboriginal people;
- Smoking within three meters (15 Feet) of public and workplace doorways, open windows or air intakes;
- Tobacco sales in public buildings including: hospitals and health facilities, universities and colleges, athletic and recreational facilities, and provincial government buildings; and
- Display and promotion of tobacco products in all places where tobacco is sold that are accessible to youth under 19.
- Unless prohibited by municipal regulations, smoking will still be allowed on the outdoor patios of restaurants and bars, as long as that patio area is not substantially enclosed.

In Canada, between 63 and 79 per cent of the price of cigarettes is tax (CBC). The government, both provincial and federal, collect huge tax revenues from smokers, and yet make it nearly impossible for them to use the product they are collecting for.

Such blatant and opportunistic hypocrisy would almost be laughable, if it didn't negatively impact so many people's lives in such a way. I’m all for not displaying cigarettes, not selling them in government buildings, and not having smoking rooms inside bars and clubs, but a 15 foot restriction is simply unworkable and ridiculous.

I have always prided myself on being a polite smoker, someone who has this habit, but doesn't annoy others with it. Someone who blows smoke away from whomever I happen to be with, whether they are a smoker or not. Not smoking around kids, especially babies, and not smoking inside. This is the kind of behavior we need to be focusing on.

I in no way want to make smoking out to be safe or friendly. It is horribly addictive, harmful, and secondhand smoke is most certainly very damaging. I do want to point out though that it is a choice that we smokers in the world make, and it is perfectly legal, and available every ten feet, in every little shop.

It's like offering out something in one hand, then trying to swat the person away with the other hand when they try and take it.

The Government of BC and the Government of Canada need to get real on this issue, and stop playing both sides of the fence by looking tough on tobacco and smokers, while the entire time collecting millions from us. It's all political, just like everything else, but this goes a little bit far in my opinion.

We haven't even started to look into other substances also taxed to the gills that are very harmful, such as alcohol. The costs of medical care for those affected by their cigarette addiction is certainly higher than that of alcohol abusers, but nonetheless, it is the same idea. The government sells, promotes and taxes a very harmful substance, and then tells people they shouldn't really be buying it or using it in the first place.

If say, smoking was outlawed tomorrow, a huge black market would spring up, and there wouldn't probably be too much of a noticeable shift in supply. It would just be much harder to acquire, and harder to use, and would drive smoking rates down dramatically. Obviously this isn't going to happen, but it's about the only way that Gordon Campbell, Stephen Harper and their respective parties pass the hypocrisy test.

We've seen the effects of prohibition before, with alcohol, and obviously it's not a viable, real solution, but all I'm asking is for the ruling parties to stop acting so righteous about the whole issue as 80% of the price I just paid for my daily pack is bulging out of their coffers.

Now, excuse me, I have to go and stand in the middle of the street to have a smoke, as in this part of town, it’s about the only place that's 15 feet from a door, window or vent.

I certainly feel like I'm safer and society is better off by having millions do the same, don’t you?

Apathy anyone...?

We are facing a rather large political crisis in Canada...Apathy.

I know this isn't a new problem, but its one that seems to be affecting a growing number of people, and its not even confined just to my generation anymore.

The Liberal and Conservative parties are in a virtual tie right now, both hovering around 30%, with the NDP at about 15%, the Greens right behind them and the Bloc polling at about 40% in Quebec.

I think this is due to the leaders of these parties, and the fact that not one of them inspires me to do a thing politically, and I already have a deep investment in the process. What does this mean for the rest of the folks in this country, the uninitiated ones looking for something, or someone, to grab them and make them want to get involved?

Apathy...that's what...

The polling I mentioned above has barely moved a tick since the time Stephane Dion became leader of the Liberals in late 2006. Dion is easily the most ineffective federal leader the Liberals have ever had and is pretty much a sure bet to be the first Liberal leader never to sit in 24 Sussex Drive. His poor command of the English language, as well as possessing the personality of a KFC wetnap may have something to do with this.

Stephen Harper on the other hand, is a very shrewd politician, and I give him respect as such, but he has done nothing to move ahead of the drip his only political competition has served up, leaving him and his party languishing in minority status, probably for a long time. If he is unable to capitalize on the absolute gift that is Stephane Dion's incompetence, what is going to happen when the Liberals get a capable leader? Someone like Michael Ignatieff, or Bob Rae would blow him out of the water. Stephen Harper is a smart man, with policies that I simply don't agree with, but he can't inspire anyone or anything.

Jack Layton, while I absolutely love his candor and personality, gives off this air of a used car salesman. This is something you've probably read before, because its been said numerous times before, but I honestly think that if Jack was a Liberal, he'd be sitting at Sussex right now, and not with a handful of seats and dwindling time in the spotlight. Jack has the ability to inspire, but the NDP does not, as people see it as a waste of a vote, and a completely un-viable party federally. Jack's going into his fourth election, and while he has grown the base and support of his party, and brought it back from also-ran status, it will never be viable in a federal election, and that's all that really matters at the end of the day.

Elizabeth May. I like her passion, but the Greens, bleh, maybe in two or three decades they'll have a dozen seats, but now, with their leader running in an almost un-winnable riding against Peter McKay, the leadership structure falling apart and resigning, they don't have a shot. They're seen as a joke, and who's inspired by a joke?

I look down to the US, and I see a man like Barack Obama, who inspires me immensely, and I don't even live in his country, or vote in his country. The men and women that do run my country, the country I do vote in and the country which I hope to someday play a hand in running myself, don't have a tenth of what Sen. Obama has. A politician like him, up here, would have an absolute field day.

So what're we left at the end of the day folks, a dud, a robot, a used car salesman and a hippy idealist...any of these inspire you, or are you feeling rather...what's the word...

Apathetic...?