The World Changes This Fall -- For Better or Worse is Up to Us

The electoral maps are shifting like crazy right now, with Obama booming and Harper falling, and I couldn't be happier about either one.

Economy, economy, economy. The one issue people care about, here, and down South. The one thing that affects everyone, and the one thing that Conservatives and Republicans lose on every single time.

Whenever the economy starts to trend down, people turn to the left to resurrect it.

The most striking example, and one that has an immense parallel to today would be FDR's election in the midst of the Depression. The New Deal came along after he stepped in, and revolutionized the way the government does business, and the values of an entire nation.

The same opportunities lie bare right now in the US, and even to an extent here.

Stephane Dion is no FDR, and at best a poor man's Obama, but his Green Shift would bring a dramatic, future-reaching change to the Canadian economy that is desperately needed right now.

I am not comfy with the thought of Dion being the face of Canada, but on his policy proposals alone, the man will change us for the better. Not to get too far deep into the Green Shift, but as I have ranted in the past in this space, and others, flipping our economy to be Green-based, with innovations and Canadian-made green technology that we can then go sell and market abroad would make us akin to oil powers in today's age, like Saudi Arabia. It will create green collar jobs, and we will then be on the cutting edge of technology the entire globe will be using in a few decades. We will control patents, and be able to provide our economy with a stable, renewable, clean base for the next ten generations, as opposed to the dirty, fluctuating and unstable footing we and the previous few have stood on.

Ok, Green Shift / carbon tax rant over.

In terms of Obama, there is nothing overarching like a Green Shift, but with promises to invest in those very same technologies in the US, like wind, solar, etc, he is also putting his country on the same footing, and looking to the future, not staying mired in the present and past of carbon-based economic models.

That, along with ambitious healthcare proposals, ending the war in Iraq, giving the middle class back their country and taking it from the 1% that George W let it be consolidated into will fundamentally change how Americans see their country, and therefore the beliefs that country reflects, and it can only be viewed as for the better, because it cannot get any worse than it is right now.

In the face of the economic issues that he helped to propagate, Johnny Mac has really done nothing but flounder and flip flop his way through the last few weeks, watching his polling numbers sink almost in tune with the stock market.

Now we have William Ayers on the political map again because of it, as Johnny figured out he simply cannot win on economics, and desperately needs a change in subject. This crap was tried and failed badly in the primaries, and it will do so on this stage as well.

McCain is behind in several key states, and even some that should be on lockdown. All the so-called battleground states, like Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Nevada, all show 10+ leads for Obama in the polls, something that cannot be explained away by margins of error, or anything else other than he is WINNING.

Plain and simple, he is winning, and only electoral fraud or god forbid, assassination is going to stop this man from sitting in the White House January 20, 2009.

On that front, the McCain-Palin ticket is beginning to race-bait, starting a few days ago by inciting crowds to a frenzy, to the point where they have yelled out, 'Kill him', 'terrorist', and 'Off with his head', obviously referencing the junior Senator from Illinois. Is it just me, or is this seriously dangerous territory to be running on? The noble maverick-y candidate has clearly lost that honor he touts so frequently, if he ever really had it in the first place. Clearly the memories of the sting of George W's baseless attacks in 2000 have faded away, replaced by a hunger to win at all costs.

Obama is projecting out at 350+ on some electoral maps, and at least 300+ on some of the less ambitious or gutsy pollsters (270 to win). Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com, the single best polling site out there, has Obama winning 9/10 times in his electoral predictions, which all through the primaries proved to be about as rock-solid as can be.

It has never looked better for the good Senator in the 20 months he has been in this game, and I have a sneaky suspicion that trend will continue on through November 4.

Back to Canada, before we close.

Harper's poll numbers have been dwindling in the past week or so, down to the point where Dion is nearing the margin or error.

My belief is that his drop is two-fold. First, people are watching him brush off the economic crisis as nothing more than background noise, while watching the economy of the country where 80% of our exports go completely tank. If they have issues with liquidity, and being able to buy anything, let alone import our lumber and other commodities, who do you think is going to feel the pain first?

Harper has shown little to no leadership here, repeating over and over that the Canadian economy is strong. Platitudes and words are all well and good, but I want contingency plans, I want clear visions of what we can do if the US gets into really serious trouble. We get nothing but essentially this : 'Nah, don't worry about it, we're cool'. That doesn't suffice from a Prime Minister.

The second of those two folds is Dion, who has been coming on strong, starting in the English debate, where he actually showed he has the chops to stand toe-to-toe with Harper on the issues of the day.

I find this is what worried people, and myself, the most about a Dion government, that he would be a little weakling drip. I think he has shown that's not the case, and the only thing left is whether people get on board with the Green Shift, which is not a foregone conclusion by any sense.

Dion still has a communication problem, and with a complex, tax-shifting policy, that is a serious issue. I still don't think he will end up being Prime Minister, but if he can stem the Conservative flow to a majority, he's good in my books.

Jack has run strong so far, but he will never be PM with that orange albatross around his neck. Same with Elizabeth May, except hers is tinged Green. Both of these two are more effective communicators, and better leaders than Stephane Dion, and yet, they chose parties that can never actually govern.

Ideological people are great, and the people that end up really caring enough to effect change in the end, but at some point, you have to see the only path to 24 Sussex is a little red / blue road, not orange or green.

We are days away from Canada's choice, and about three weeks from the US's. This is special ground my friends (sorry to steal the line Johnny ;)), and this time in politics will be talked about and studied for a long time into the future.

Game-changing, ground-breaking, paradigm-altering races.

I'm just glad I'm around to take it all in.

Meeting Elizabeth May, Peter McKay , and Discussing Charter Rights

Well, it wasn't me, but it was my significant other, Lindsay.

She lives on the East Coast, in Antigonish, Nova Scotia, home of St Francis Xavier University, which she attends, and also the site of the local candidates debate for the riding of Central Nova last night.

In this riding, the very impressive Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is trying to wedge herself and the Greens into Parliament by knocking off Nova Scotia native son and Defense Minister Peter McKay.

At first glance, this does seem, frankly, insane. Going up against a Cabinet Minister, from a town within the riding, who is running for the party that has had an iron grip on the seat for decades, etc. But, all that outsider, fringe party, insurmountable stuff is getting turned on its head. May has a shot, and she showed why last night.

She was smart, on the ball, rational and reasonable, just like she was in the Federal debates last week. The crowd, chocked full of university students, was fully on her side, as the Liberals aren't running a candidate in the riding, and the NDP candidate is completely and utterly out of their league with two such strong and notable candidates.

She runs her campaign out of Antigonish, and clearly has a good chunk of the town on her side, just based on the amount of signs populating lawns. The riding is not just Antigonish however, as it covers a wide area, but May has more of a chance of knocking out McKay than any Liberal or NDP member has done so far.

After the debate, Lindsay got a chance to speak with both McKay and May, and got a chance to bring up the question to McKay that had gotten cut from the actual debate due to time constraints.

A little background before unleashing the whole story. The Nova Scotia Conservative provincial government has new regulations in place that force those that have taken prescription drugs for a disorder such as depression or post-traumatic stress disorder to declare those conditions and the drugs taken on their driver's licenses.

The government says it is due to safety concerns over people driving under the influence of medication, but that is a little hard to swallow with no evidence that these kinds of people have been a danger, or the drugs taken will impair driving ability.

So, basically what is in place now will force people to either admit to the public record their private medical conditions, or simply ignore treatment to avoid having to do so. Neither of those jives with my values as a Canadian.

I smell a Charter violation there, and so did Lindsay. So she decided to pose the question of the viability of such a law from a Charter standpoint to the one and only Peter McKay.

Now, while provincial and federal parties aren't specifically aligned together (In BC they couldn't be more of a separate entity), apparently on the East Coast it is much more of a central party than translates policy from the top down.

So, talking to a Cabinet member of the ruling Conservatives federally can very much have an impact on the Conservative party provincially.

She posed the question, they went back and forth and debated for 10-15 minutes, and then, the shining light appeared.

Peter McKay admitted the law was a violation of our Charter Rights, and pledged to do what he could to affect some positive change on the matter.

McKay went against his own party, and conversed with a constituent on a personal level. I admire that, and I have a lot more respect for the man now than I think I ever have. Up to this point, he seemed nothing more than the guy that was jilted by Belinda Stronach and sold his soul to Stephen Harper to unite the right.

They exchanged email addresses, and he also gave her some links and contact information for the provincial and federal health ministers, so that she could run down some of the details on her time.

Obviously, that doesn't mean the law is repealed, or that it will be tomorrow, but there is a commitment on record from a very powerful minister to the effect that it should be. That my friends, is a pretty big deal.

I want to congratulate Lindsay for standing toe-to-toe with a very seasoned politician, and winning him over in the end. That's not an easy task, especially when that politician resides in the spin and negativity of the right wing.

Just so you know I'm not fakin', here's the pics of Lindsay and Elizabeth May, and with Peter McKay

Presidential, Federal, Municipal, Oh My! - Election Tidbits From All Sides

There are so many elections and races going on right now, it's hard for the most fervent political fans to stay with everything that comes across the wire.

There are exciting races happening everywhere.

There is obviously the US Presidential elections, covered ad nauseum, the still-blooming federal election here in Canada, and for those of us in the Vancouver area, as I myself am, there is also the very intriguing Mayoral race to follow.

Whew.

First up, Vancouver Mayor.

I like the energy Gregor Robertson and his youth have brought to the campaign, and I have actually signed up to volunteer for him. He scored a huge boon yesterday when COPE and the municipal Green Party agreed to run a unified left wing slate against the NPA, and when COPE more importantly, chose not to run a candidate of their own, and instead back Robertson straight up.

That's huge, because a divided left wing is what handed Sam Sullivan the keys to City Hall in the first place three years ago.

Furthermore, I flat out disrespect the way Peter Ladner came into this race, sweeping the NPA's nomination away from Sam Sullivan, a man who just based on personal story, let alone being the sitting Mayor, deserves to run and defend his record. He will not get the chance to do that and has since stepped away from politics. It was a dishonest and immoral way to jump onto the main stage for Ladner, and simply, his whole campaign just feels dirty because of it.

Federal Election.

Dion is tanking, badly. He is running last in the province, and a shocking poll out today shows the Greens actually running second (!) to the Conservatives, and furthermore, they are only 2 points behind, 26%-24%

That is flat out amazing. Contained in that link is also the incredibly bad news for Dion and the Liberals, that they are running dead last in BC. The NDP support is flagging as well.

The real story in BC and across the country it seems, is with the Greens. This comes from a number of factors.

a) People don't really like Stephen Harper.
b) People think Stephane Dion is a drip, and they don't trust him.
c) Jack Layton comes off as a used car salesman.

People want some change, but they have nowhere to turn. The Barack Obama syndrome run amuck.

Jack can try to be Barack all he wants, and he can say the word change as many times as it can get past that 'stache, but he simply does not have the gravitas of the man across the 49th parallel.

There is no one fresh, except for Elizabeth May and her slate. She is benefiting from apathy with not one party, but three, and four if you count the Bloc, which I don't.

There has never been such a bland slate for a somewhat-fringe party to pick up gains from, but by God, this seems to be it. The Greens should do well this cycle, barring some unforeseen game-changer.

Harper is doing okay for the campaign he is trying to run, which is the 'make Dion look like shit' strategy. Dion is doing a lot of the job for him, but Harper is countering anything positive about the Liberals very effectively.

Bland, uninspiring campaign so far, except May, she is performing wonderfully.

Presidential Elections.

I honestly feel myself being a little soured towards the Presidential campaign right now. Firstly, the strict partisanship that everyone has aligned into, which completely squashes any kind of independent thought outside of what flows from Obama and McCain, which is then disseminated by talking heads and surrogates a thousand times over.

Secondly, I am a very rational person. I take everything, break it down, follow it to its logical end and go with it, and any time that doesn't happen, for me, is cause for a headache. McCain's lies, distortions and illogical explanations and justifications for those lies and distortions has caused me to reach for the aspirin too many times over the past few weeks, starting with the Palin nomination.

Mostly, it is her bare incompetence, but also the reasoning surrogates come up with as to why she isn't incompetent, such as, foreign policy - Russia is close to Alaska / energy (?), denials of the Road to Nowhere, especially after explicit evidence was found and distributed that she supported it, the whole Troopergate debacle that has now had about four different explanations, and the family rights anti-abortion advocate who says how happy she is for 'the choice her daughter made' when she wants to strip that very choice from those in the same situation.

And to see everyone lap it up has just kind of turned me off. McCain got a bounce out of it and is still running even with Obama in a lot of swing states and nationally. That honestly infuriates me. I cannot see how people can compare the two, on ideas, substance, actions, words, anything, and not see McCain is as transparent as a piece of saran wrap. It's like no one can see the incredibly grave risks posed by a McCain presidency, or they simply don't care.

The financial collapse of today has finally turned the attention off of lipstick and pigs and onto actual issues, which is a nice change of pace, and also completely out of McCain's comfort zone, which mainly consists of his POW time.

There are too many negatives with McCain, and so many positives with Obama, I'm not even going to attempt to fill the space. It would take the whole night.

I didn't mean to rant on the US race, but sometimes, you just have to go with what's going, and that went.

Bottom line, good news for Gregor Robertson, bad news for Dion, good news for May and the Greens, and bad news for anyone with a rational mind, and prone to headaches induced by right-wing talking points.

Election Tidbits - Greens Shut Out, Harper and Layton Fast Out of the Gate, Dion Lags

It looks like Elizabeth May and the Greens are going to be shut out of another leaders debate. The decision was made today by a group of Canadian television broadcasters who actually run the debates on their airwaves to only host the Conservative, Liberal, NDP and Bloc parties for the two debates slated for early October.

Unlike all the other times, this time I actually feel they should be there.

They are a legitimate national party now. They are not viable to form any kind of government, but neither is the NDP or the Bloc. They are running candidates in every single riding across the country, except one, which is a product of the ill-advised deal Stephane Dion made with May to not run candidates in each others ridings. (This works just fine for May, but as May herself is running against Peter Mackay, Dion might be thinking twice about not being able to run a candidate against the Foreign Minister) Also, as of the dissolution of Parliament, they actually had a sitting MP, as the near-disgraced, now-cleared but shunned by his former Liberals MP Blair Wilson had switched to Green stripes.

Maybe the Greens should have been let in last time, or the one before, but this time around, they have national prominence, and cannot be denied. More importantly, their main party issue should be injected into our national discourse in a major way.

May and the Greens are taking legal action to hopefully force their way onto the national stage. They've been doing a damn good job of it for over a decade now, and I hope the trend continues sometime in the next few weeks.

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Jack Layton and Stephen Harper really jumped out of the starting blocks of the national campaign today, hitting hard on issues and trying to define their opponents, campaigns and themselves.

Stephane Dion on the other hand, has had more of a...slow start on the race.

His campaign plane will not be ready for another few weeks, even though this election had been on the horizon since the moment he sat for the first time as Liberal leader in Parliament. He is to be on a bus tour for the time in between, and began today with a rally in Montreal.

As you can see from a 24 Hours review of the event here , it didn't seem to lack too much punch and enthusiasm.

This is going to be a tough campaign for Dion just based on the issues (Green Shift), let alone having to battle problems with energizing his Liberal base and the electorate. This is a very uphill battle, and Dion started with a thud.

Harper, on the other hand, has been issuing election-style commercials for a few weeks now, and peppering Canadian mailboxes with fliers about leadership, the environment, crime, and all the other issues of the day. They have a big head start on the hearts and minds campaign, as the Harper commercials have been effective, showing ordinary people praising Harper's policies, and the man himself.



On a side note, I saw the first Liberal ad of the campaign, and it was highly unimpressive. It didn't seem to have a clear point, didn't convince anyone about the Green Shift, throwing out a bunch of cliche lines about creating jobs and making our economy stronger, without offering specifics. It closed with a very bad, grainy shot of Dion saying something about why he respects Canada. I say again, THUD.

(Note: I searched for a good 20 minutes trying to find the Liberal Party's ad on YouTube, but could not, and ironically, every search with the keywords 'liberal' 'party' 'election' 'ad' 'Canada' '2008', etc, ended up pulling up the Stephen Harper leadership commercials for the first 3-4 hits. Dion is losing the viral campaign already, and with this generation possibly going to the polls, that is a very necessary chord to hit)

Layton gave a fiery speech in Vancouver today, hitting the Conservatives hard on their environmental and social policies. Jack is trying to be the Canadian Obama, preaching about being the candidate of 'change', and right away, it seems to be working for him. He has the populist cred to run this kind of campaign, and with him paying no attention to Dion and all his attention to Harper, in a year where people seem to be largely apathetic towards Dion, and not entirely comfortable with Stephen Harper having a majority, he could steal a lot of left-leaning voters.

I honestly think we will end up in another Conservative minority government, but if Dion flubs, or people are not comfortable enough with him, or Jack, then it could lead to a big Conservative slide.

Jack has opportunities, so does Harper, and the Liberals are just trying to hang on.

Ahhh, feels like 2006 all over again.

I do also think this will be Dion's only election as leader, and he will be subtly, or not so subtly, pushed to the side after the almost assured loss. I think everyone that leans left of Bush in this country (Which would be the type of policies Stephen Harper in a majority setting would emulate to the fullest) is just hoping he doesn't blow it and condemn us to absolute rule by the Conservative Party, and then we'll move on to someone more capable of winning an election. Someone like Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae, two men who should have been the last two in the leadership contest before Dion and Gerard Kennedy pulled their backstage deal to swipe the leadership away.

That aside, I have heard many people say in this cycle they will not vote Liberal or NDP, they will simply vote non-Conservative. Whatever works in their riding to ensure that seat is not held by a Conservative MP is what their vote is pointed towards. That concept will likely decide the makeup of our next Parliament more than anything the leaders have to say over the next 5 weeks, because with the polls showing a near tie amongst the Liberals and Conservatives, not many opinions are likely to change in just over a month, no matter how heavy the rhetoric and how prosperous the policy proposals are.

Federal Election in October All But Assured After Harper and Dion Meet and Decide They Cannot Play Nice

Along with the attention-grabbing US election, it looks like Canadians are also going to go to the polls this fall.

Stephane Dion came out of a meeting with Stephen Harper at 24 Sussex Drive this afternoon and announced to reporters that there was going to be a fall campaign, because he wouldn't give Harper a "blank cheque to govern".

Everyone seems to be on board this time, unlike the near misses in the past.

Dion has been Liberal leader for almost 2 years now, and apparently has been backed into enough of a corner to have at least the appearance of growing a set. Harper seems to be more than willing to violate his own fixed election date law that sets our next federal election for 2009. Jack Layton responded to that move by saying essentially that if Harper wants to quit his job he'll be first in line to apply for it. Gilles Duceppe has pledged to hold a confidence vote, with or without any support.

So here we are folks, ready to mark ballots again.

The competing themes will be leadership from the Conservative side, and the Green Shift policy put forth by Dion.

I would go over the NDP and Bloc approaches, but those haven't changed much. For the NDP, bitch about anything that gets traction, and for the Bloc, bitch about not getting enough support from Ottawa even though you want to separate entirely. Oh, and the Greens, how could I forget? Bitch about the environment and run your leader against one of the highest profile Conservatives in a safe, deep blue riding. Smmmart.

I've actually been meaning to write about the outreach I've been seeing in my mailbox from the Conservative party for a while now, so this seems as good a spot as any to do so.

I have now gotten 4 separate mailers from the Conservatives, about Strong Leadership, Youth Crime, Senate Reform and Clean Air.

They are all stacked with facts, figures, policy standpoints, and imagery that is thought-provoking. Me and my fiancee had a separate conversation each time one of them came in the mail, sparking conversation about the Conservative stances. On leadership and Senate reform, I found myself on the Conservative side of things, which is an odd sensation to say the least.

I do think Harper is a stronger national and international player for Canadian interests than Stephane Dion would be. I don't care for Harper's policies when it comes to free trade and relations with the Bush Administration, but I can take some good with the bad, especially when compared with Paul Martin's Panderbear foreign and domestic policies.

On the Senate, I've been on the reforming train for as long as I have understood the Canadian political process. In no modern democracy should we have an unelected, highly paid, patronage-infested body, which serves almost no purpose other than to rubber stamp. The Senate as is, is nothing more than a money pit which lends itself to cronyism, as all members are essentially there as a reward for a career of party loyalty. This does not jive with a functional democracy. There does need to be a check on Parliament, as we cannot have one sole elected body, especially with a majority government, as that setup is essentially a dictatorship anyways.

We need a Senate that represents all areas of the country equally, with 2 or 3 members for each province, with elections that run opposite Parliamentary cycles.

That is plain and simple, but Dion does not agree, as the Liberals have a heavy majority in our unelected chamber, due to being the governing party an overwhelming majority of the time in Canadian history. Most Canadians are on the side of reform, some on abolishment, but I do not see too many advocating for the status quo on this one.

I'm not saying I agree with the information as a whole, and definitely not on punishing our youth harder as opposed to rehabilitating them, or that Harper is on the right side of the climate change argument, despite his attempts, but the point is they are providing information, and the Liberals are not.

The Conservatives have also debuted a series of commercials to define Harper as a strong leader for Canada, and surprisingly, they don't take shots at Dion, they're simple record pieces on Harper to show people he is the best leader for Canada right now. They are with ordinary people; blue collar workers and soccer moms, listing with emotion and certainty the Conservative accomplishments since in power, and how those accomplishments helped their daily lives and made them feel safer.

Harper does still have a sizable 'creepy problem', as shown in the closing seconds of the ad, when he is sitting down, perched forward with his elbows on his knees, wearing a sweater, and smiling into the camera. It doesn't seem normal, and honestly, it gives me the willies. All in all though, he is in people's hearts and minds more than Dion, by a long shot.

Dion, as detailed in a previous article, available off the right side of this page, has a serious communication issue, as even after 2 years, most Canadians don't know or trust him enough to mark Liberal in their riding come October.

There are of course areas that will remain Liberal until the day this country dies, but there are a lot of battleground-type areas available for either side, with the NDP spoiling a race here or there.

BC is a big toss up, with a left-leaning, green-based ideology perfectly suited to swing Liberal. I've lived here my whole life, and I still cannot understand why the majority of BC seats are as blue as the sky. Partially it is a symptom of the incompetent provincial NDP party, as people have trouble dividing federal parties from their essentially unaffiliated provincial brethren.

But aside from that, it comes down to delivery, to speaking to people's concerns everywhere, not just in Southern Ontario and across the St Lawrence seaway.

Harper can and will nab Alberta easily, but with a concerted effort, a few of those seats further West can swing the other way.

Dion must spend the next two months connecting with people, traveling coast to coast and convincing them that his Green Shift is the way to go for the country.

The Conservatives have spent almost their entire time in power trying to build up their cred on green issues, but it all has rung rather hollow, leaving Dion the opportunity he needs to kick the door in to a serious electoral advantage. Dion needs to hit that note, and hit it hard, convincing people not only is his plan the way to go, but that environmental issues are the most pressing of our time. His whole policy book is built around the Green Shift, so people need to see the environment as above their pocketbook, because that is where the Green Shift is going to hit them.

Dion has said the Shift will be revenue neutral, but that isn't the kind of language that people are going to get in line with everywhere, especially with Harper hammering home the fact that it is a tax increase, leaving aside the incentives and tax cuts elsewhere. As I have said previously, the Green Shift is not an effective campaign strategy, although it is likely a great governing strategy. Hard truths are not easy to campaign on, especially when you have communication and trust issues with the electorate.

The Conservatives are hitting home with their mailers and ads, and Dion needs to jump on this before it is too late. Leadership will be the question, as it always is, but Dion's supposed test of leadership will be defined by how people view the Green Shift. If they don't agree, then Dion and the Liberals are in serious trouble, and Harper might get the majority government he so craves.

We'll find out in the next two months what the Canadian people see as the best road forward, and during that time, we will also see the most dynamic and important US Presidential election ever held.

For pols, such as myself, the fall season isn't going to be about new shows, it's going to be about policy proposals and politics at the highest levels. It's going to be busy, and I'm going to be loving every minute of it.