Biden to Georgia a GOP Monkey Wrench for VP Timing?

I was thinking last night while reading some speculation over when Barack Obama is going to choose his VP, that Joe Biden's trip over to Georgia is going to really mess with the timing of a pick, especially if that pick is, as I hope, Joe Biden.

His presence was requested by Georgian President Saakshvili but it still smells a tad fishy to me.

There's been far too many Diaries already posted on the merits of Kaine, Bayh, Sebelius, etc, so I won't get into anything in that regard, but what I will say simply is from the group that is apparently shortlisted, Joe Biden would be, by far, the best choice available in my humble opinion.

Now, with the Olympics winding down on Sunday of this week, and the Democratic convention opening a week from today, Obama is running out of time to choose, at least if he wants to get 2-3 days of positive (hopefully) spin before the Olympics ceremonies overshadow anything political.

The convention is already going to dominate the news, so that isn't the place we would see an announcement, if we're talking pure publicity, which should always be part of the conversation.

So, the way I see things, the nod should come, at the latest, on Wednesday, giving at least two days of solid coverage, effectively removing John McCain from the news cycle until after Obama gives his 75,000-strong acceptance speech next week.

With all of that said, Joe Biden, the strongest VP choice available, is not in the country to stand with Obama, appear on stage or in front of microphones, hug, look good as a team, etc, etc, that would come along with such an announcement.

Biden isn't gone forever, but he likely won't be back until Thursday at the earliest, which isn't ideal time-wise.

I think I've gone far enough into this Diary without covering the actual title, so here goes. Georgia just had the US get its back over the war with Russia, hard. Georgia owes the current leadership in Washington a lot, and I think Mr. Bush might be cashing at least some of his chips with Saakshvili right here and now.

With the election being such a 'horse race' in the minds of many, despite so many reasons why it should not be, every little jab, stall tactic or delay is important. If Obama loses a day of publicity over his VP pick, so much the better for Johnny Mac, and for the Republican Party.

Obviously there is no hard evidence here, and I have no quotes from George, McCain or Saakshvili to point towards this hypothesis, and with Joe Biden's serious foreign relations cred, I can understand why he was the pick, but it's all just very convenient.

Maybe it's Saakshvili soaking up his 15 minutes on the international stage as much as possible, using his newfound ironclad allegiance with the US to show his own people how strong of a leader he is, cavorting with the US Secretary of State, and along with Lieberman and Graham, three heavyweight US Senators, who knows for sure.

Of course, no one knows who Obama is going to pick, and it could be Bayh or Kaine anyways, but I just hope if it was set to be Biden, that the announcement timing doesn't alter the decision, because while the VP pick is important for so many other reasons, the timing, and the control of the news cycle that one gets out of such a high profile choice is really what counts at this time of the year.

I don't think Obama would really toss Biden into the dumpster alongside the Superticket (sorry Hill) simply because of a scheduling conflict, but in the minutiae-heavy Presidential race we find ourselves in, every little tit or tat counts.

Cross-Posted at Daily Kos under the name Red Star

Russia and Georgia - Squashing the Narrative

I've been struck more than once by the utter hypocrisy of the US, and leaders around the world in their response to the Russia-Georgia war.

George W Bush was quoted as saying that invading a sovereign nation in the 21st century was 'unacceptable' (Blogger's note : Was the Iraq War in the 21st century? Someone remind me when that started). Former UN Ambassador and certified nut John Bolten said Russia was trying to re-create the Soviet Empire. John McCain jumped into this narrative as well, accusing Putin and Medvedev of wanting to reform not the Soviet, but the Russian Empire.

Wow.

That is some serious and heavy rhetoric.

I wonder why then that these kind of words were not tossed around say, back in the summer of 2006, when Israel launched their own little 'destroy the thorn in our side' war with Lebanon?

Or maybe in 2002, when the US was prepping for their 'thorn in the side' war with Iraq?

Squashing long-standing enemies seems to be so en vogue in this century of ours, that Russia's war in Georgia is fairly in-line with the example world powers have set over the last eight years.

To say that this is Russia's war, that Russia started, also seems to be the most popular way to frame the conflict in the West.

The basic timeline is this : South Ossetia is a breakaway province that wants independence, Georgia attacked South Ossetia to try and regain its grip over them, after a small terrorist attack by South Oseetia rebels, and Russia rolled in in an attempt to stabilize.

Now, from there, Russia has certainly been opportunistic, looking to squash the country, and a leader, that has been opposed to them for a while now, and who is very pro-US. They have bombed airports, bridges and civilian housing complexes. These are tragedies of course, but were they viewed as tragedies when those airports, bridges and bodies were Lebanese, or Iraqi? Of course not.

I want to make special note of the Lebanon conflict, because it mirrors this one in many ways. A small group, Hezbollah, kidnapped a few Israeli soldiers on a cross-border raid. While Hezbollah is headquartered in a small tract in Lebanon, a strip along the Israeli border, the entire country was razed with missiles, gunships and a ground invasion. It was collective punishment for allowing Hezbollah to exist in their nation. We all knew this at the time, and yet, there was nothing but support for Israel, that they were defending themselves, and were only fighting defensively, etc.

Now, in the very same sense, Russia is protecting it's territorial integrity by warring with a party on its border that has instigated a conflict. And yet, Russia is seen as the aggressor in this case, and Israel the victim in theirs.

It's all PR, it's all spin, and it's all about the false narrative that Russia is the new threat to everything that is holy and good. The Cold War worked brilliantly for those who use the politics of fear, and with under 90 days until the US elects Mr. Bush's successor, this feels like a rehash of that, with a dash of terrorist ties and a pinch of misplaced self-righteousness.

Think of a situation like this : In Mexico, along the US border, there is a group that wants independence, and they are prepared to fight for it. They run border raids across into the US, they attack Mexican interests. Mexico tries to stamp them out, but the US feels they need to protect their security as well, and of course, they feel they can do it better than any Mexican ever could, so they roll in to put out the rebellion, and then see the opportunity to shape the country in their image.

I know this isn't the perfect example, but it is an elected government, on the border of a world power, whose internal machinations have spilled over their own borders, and have sparked an international incident.

Vladimir Putin has been steadfast in his rejection of the disingenuous criticism from around the globe. He called out George as well, questioning why it was okay for the US to execute Saddam Hussein for gassing a few villages tens of thousands of miles from the US borders, but a war of aggression on Russia's border was not cause for a response.

I don't agree with Russia's actions here, so please, don't get my point confused. I am against any conflict like this, like Iraq, like Lebanon, like any smaller nation that gets stomped by a larger power for doing something that power saw as 'unacceptable'. What I am attacking in this piece is the hypocritical narrative laid out.

The US seems to also be stoking the flames of the war a bit by airlifting Georgian troops out of Iraq, where Georgia has the largest military contingent apart from the US and Britain, right into the conflict zone back home.

Understandably, Putin was a tad incredulous as to why a supposed ally would hamper another major allied power's efforts so directly, but, the main handbook on US foreign policy seems to still be 'do as I say, not as I do'.

There are also now whispers here and there of WWIII (Rush Limbaugh), and the fact that Russia has provided plans and built reactors for Iran seems to be at the top of the news again.

I'm not really sure just how WWIII would start, seeing how the US doesn't have the forces outside of Iraq to be able to even perform peacekeeping in Georgia, let alone fight Russia in an all-out war. That would likely require a draft, which is a different theme for a different article.

Funny thing is, the timing on these stories, and the expansion of the anti-Russian narrative is just immaculate, almost like state media, trumpeting the President's message for all the people to hear.

The bottom line is this, Russia's actions, while not desirable, are within the boundaries that have been set for international conflict of this kind. The US set the precedent of a world power having the justification to invade another sovereign nation based on their own suppositions, and nothing else. Israel continued this line in 2006 with Lebanon, and now Russia has its turn at the plate.

No one is in the right, or no one is in the wrong, the US doesn't get to play both ways on this one, they've gone too far to have that right any longer.

Finally! : After 5 Years, UN Takes Action on Sudan

Sudan has been something that has horrified anyone that even had a cursory understanding of the situation for over 5 years now.

Now we have found out what everyone suspected all along, that the Khartoum government was sponsoring and planning the genocide from its highest levels. A high level commander in the janjaweed militia now says that their actions : raping, pillaging, killing and burning villages in the Darfur region, was straight from Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir.

We all knew this was likely the case, but now there is confirmation, and as this person spilling the beans is a high level commander, it just makes the information carry that much more weight.

There were two other major news pieces on Sudan this week as well.

There is now evidence to confirm that China has played a significant role in aiding the genocide militarily, as Chinese military vehicles have been spotted in use on both sides of the conflict. Leaving all moral conflicts aside from helping this sort of movement along, this contravenes a 2005 UN ban on military aid to the Sudanese government. With a recent move to 'not anger China', this will likely go to the wayside, but in the larger sense of the court of public opinion, China's direct support for the Darfur genocide is now on record.

Also, the UN War Crimes Tribunal is likely going to try the leaders of the African nation for war crimes at the Hague for their role in the slaughter.

So, after 5 years of inaction, while it was the cause celebre of the celebrities and non-body hair shaving activists everywhere, we have some solid results on Sudan.

None of this means the genocide will stop, as this news isn't a major change of pace from what we already understood about the conflict. But what it does mean is that countries, such as Canada, can take action now, with hard evidence showing the crimes of Khartoum.

Being bogged down in Afghanistan may prevent us from really stepping up, it just makes it harder for Omar Hassan al-Bashir to continue to deny help from the African Union or the UN to stop the violence.

Sudan is a complex situation, and it will require a lot more than words and empty threats to make the changes that are needed. I think the same is true for Zimbabwe.

The western world largely turns a blind eye to continent as a whole, and only slightly turns a head when millions are dying in horrible and savage conditions. This conflict and the new details about it, seem to have finally broke through and reached a point where people really give a shit, and are prepared to take action.

I hope so, and I hope the war crimes charges stick, I hope China is censured, and I hope we never have to discuss this kind of topic ever again.

But then again, when have 'millions displaced, hundreds of thousands killed' ever really made a meaningful difference in the future?

Remember Rwanda? We said never again. And then we let it happen again.



We need to act. It is just that simple.

G8 Summit : Loooowwwerred Expectaaaatttions...

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Environment Minister John Baird dampened expectations for wide-ranging deals on basically anything at the upcoming G8 Summit in Japan.

There are too many to list off, but climate change and the world economy are the two heavy hitters right now. Environment, at least, is getting pushed back before it evens begins to take hold as an issue, with Baird stating we all have to wait about 18 months, until Fall / Winter 2009 in Denmark, where the next major UN climate change conference will be held.

Yasuo Fukuda, the PM of Japan and host of the summit, wanted to set an agenda to halve greenhouse gases by 2050, at the very least. This was immediately rebuffed by the US, as always. Fukuda declined to say specifically if the US was blocking a deal, but if they weren't Baird and Harper probably would have made the ol' college try themselves.

There are other opportunities for climate change discussions, Baird stated, saying essentially that Canada could build momentum at the G8 for Copenhagen in '09. This seems like the usual right-wing 'stall on climate change until we're out of power' routine, but there are actual opportunities for discussion here, as emerging economic powers like China, India and Brazil will be attending, with a contingent of African nations as well.

I see nothing meaningful coming out of these meetings in terms of climate change, because the biggest polluter, the US, is seeing it's most unpopular President out of power this year, and his final months will not be spent on climate change. They will be spent trying in his own halfassed way to broker peace in the Middle East in Israel / Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond.

Nothing else matters, and nothing else will be accomplished before the US inaugurates its next President.

On the global economic front, there is more ideological games to be played, as the conservative leaning leaders are pushing deregulation and free trade as a way to shore up flagging economies. As has been shown with Mr. Bush, who deregulated the financial industry at home and signed free trade deals with anyone that would scrawl their name next to his, conservative ideology no longer applies, and never really did.

As with climate change, with Bush riding out of power, nothing will be accomplished. The US will continue bungling around, maybe send out another rebate cheque and bomb Iran before November. That's about it.

The last thing on the docket, apparently, is Robert Mugabe and Zimbabwe, one of the more successful despots there has been in Africa, in terms of keeping his iron grip on power even with one of the worst economies in all of human history. I'm sure many have heard and read about the one man elections and intimidated opposition dropouts. There seems to be a video out now as well, which shows vote rigging in the election held a few weeks ago. Why there was vote rigging in a one-man election I don't know.

The point is, and Harper actually said this the other day, to have 'one voice' from the G8 criticizing Mugabe, and further pressuring him to either step down or allow foreign intervention to have free and fair elections, where Mugabe would likely get trounced.

That may be an easy way to show progress in this G8 Summit, because in place of all the things that actually matter, such as war, economy, climate change, HIV, etc, etc, we are going to get an empty threat to a dictator who likely will ignore it and continue in power until he dies.

Awesome.

As the title says, these guys really know how to do Loooowwwerred Expectaaaatttions... :



........................

Maybe I'm a tad cynical this morning, and this piece may have been a little more biting than intended, but seeing inaction in the face of so many challenges is rather aggravating. And when I get aggravated, like Hulk, I SMASH....well not really, I write political articles, I don't really smash a thing.....

Obama and the Teflon of Rationality

This is why Barack Obama will be sitting in the White House nine months from now.



This man is like no other politician I've ever seen. No matter what kind of ridiculous kitchen sink attacks come at him, he holds a press conference and calmly makes reasoned and logical arguments that make the other side look petty, stupid, and just plain wrong.

You cannot doubt the sincerity of his words, but you sure as shit better doubt the hypocrisy of John McCain's.

I don't think the GOP quite understands yet what they are going up against in the fall. Not Al Gore, and not John Kerry, but Barack Obama, the once-in-a-generation candidate that is going to blow them, and their tired, out of touch 'distraction issues' out of the water.

Hell, this kind of crap was put On Notice wasn't it?


Cross Posted on Daily Kos under the name ' Red Star '