Desperate Times...

As the old saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures, and Hillary Clinton is in those times, and taking those sorts of measures.

She held a press conference this morning roasting a campaign mailing from Barack Obama , saying it contained 'lies' about her positions on NAFTA and a portion of her Healthcare plan. She compared Obama to Karl Rove, of all people, and said he, not her, was playing the dirty politics of the past, and betraying his message of positive hope and change.

Isn't this the same woman that accused Mr. Obama of plagiarism last week, trying to drag him through the muck before the all-important March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas?

Baseless plagiarism charges aside, the first basic problem Hillary has seems to be that the flyer states she supported NAFTA when it was signed in the early 90s, but doesn't now. This is completely true, as Hillary was a whole-hearted supporter when she was First Lady. She says now that NAFTA needs to be reformed, and as a Canadian, I couldn't agree more. The middle class, blue-collar workers especially, have been getting ripped by this treaty for around two decades, and I think it needs a serious revisiting. But back in the 90s, Hillary wasn't running for President, with blue-collars as her core base. She sure is now though, and now that she needs that support, NAFTA is evil. Sure wish she had felt that way in the first place.

Second is that Clinton says her Healthcare plan is being misrepresented. It has to deal with the fact that her plan forces people to pay for insurance even if they can't afford it, and will garnishee wages should the insurance not be bought out of free will. This, also, is true, and something Hillary Clinton nodded along with just this past Thursday, during the Democratic debate. I don't think penalizing people for not having the financial security is the right way to go, and falls along the same lines as the 'No Child Left Behind' program, where schools are fined and punished for not having test scores high enough. You don't penalize to make the situation better, you step in and make the situation better so you don't have to penalize in the first place, which is what

Barack is doing by attacking the prices of insurance so it is more affordable for regular people. He states that the problem is not that people don't want to have insurance; it’s that they can't afford it, and if it is more affordable, people will cover themselves adequately.

I am completely for universal healthcare, and as a Canadian, I do see it as an inalienable right, but it has to be a slow progression, and they can't just implement a Canadian-style system one day out of the blue. I think Obama's plan gets to the core issue, and Hillary's is pointed towards saying that everyone has coverage, even if it makes life harder on the average American to do so.

My own opinions aside, I have enclosed a link here to a video of the speech Hillary made this morning, so everyone can see what desperate measures in desperate times really look like.

You may have to watch a short ad first, and the video is about a minute and a half.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/23/clinton.mailings/index.html#cnnSTCVideo

The Final Democratic Debate before Texas and Ohio

The last Democratic debate before the huge, monumental primaries in Texas and Ohio, that will likely decide who will be the nominee to go against John McCain this fall.

I've watched the entire debate so far, just past the hour mark now, and I have to say, Barack Obama is hammering Hillary Clinton to the ground. He is coming off inspiring and rational, and she is coming off as petty and divisive. This is purely my view, of course, but there is this sense, watching the debate, that we are all watching a man that is going to take on John McCain and win in November, and a woman who is desperately trying to revive something that's clearly already dead.

Hillary Clinton has tried to put a smile on the entire time, even when she was booed by the Texas crowd, but she is desperately grasping at straws, and it's showing more than ever.

As a quick example, the issue of Obama's alleged plagarism of a Deval Patrick speech was brought up. Barack, in his few minutes, explained logically that it was two lines, which were given to him by Patrick, and that the issue itself was pointless in the face of so many other issues, and to harp on it was part of the divisive politics of the past. Hillary got her response and did nothing but hammer at him for plagarism. Petty, pointless, and divisive.

Again, as they are debating healthcare, Barack is laying out his plan in a rational, coherent way, and Hillary is nitpicking and seeming to become very angry up on stage. Both candidates have completely overridden a question about experience and have returned to a debate about healthcare. They are both very passionate and into this debate, which I love, but all in all, so far, Barack Obama has a distinct advantage, and Hillary Clinton is grasping desperately to something that simply isn't there any longer.

I'll be back later on to recap the debate in full...

Wisconsin, Hawaii, and McCain

Barack Obama swept both Wisconsin and Hawaii, his home state, last night by rather large margins. In Wisconsin, he beat Hillary Clinton by about 20 points, and in Hawaii, he blew her out of the water by about 40. Now as I said above, Hawaii, being Obama's home state, was expected to give him a crushing victory, but Wisconsin is a bit of a different story. It was sort of a harbinger of things to come for Hillary, as a lot of Latino and blue collar voters swung Obama's way. If this trend continues through Ohio and Texas on March 4, Obama will have the delegates to finally secure this nomination, even though as little as 6 months ago, he wasn't seen as having a viable shot at anything.

This is fairly amazing, but without Ohio and Texas, it doesn't mean too much. Obama has won ten straight primaries/caucuses by convincing margins, but if he doesn't pull off at least one of the two March 4 states, all will be for naught.

John McCain, on the other hand, took one more step forward on the path to the Republican nomination, as he also won Wisconsin, and Washington State last night, leaving him within spitting distance of the magic number he needs to finally push Mike Huckabee out of the spotlight and let it shine unto him and him alone. McCain is going to have problems against whoever he faces, and it will be a serious uphill battle to convince voters they aren't getting 4-8 more years of Bush's failed policies, even though those policies are essentially what John McCain has put forward so far. It'll be interesting to see whether he softens these as we move towards November, but he needs the base of the Republican Party to congregate behind him so badly that he may even go more right-wing to do so before it is all said and done.

A few things of note:

- Huckabee, I think, by staying in the race for so long after he clearly has lost, has completely played his way out of a VP slot on McCain's ticket. It likely wasn't going to be him anyways, but after this growing embarassment and distraction he is becoming for the Republican Party, I don't think he's going to be too popular of a man when McCain comes a'callin.

- McCain is really starting to jab at Obama as well, calling himself the experience candidate, as he has done all along, but calling Obama, not by name, out on his lack of experience. He hasn't done the same thing with Hillary though, leading me to believe her fortunes are a lot worse off than we are all led to believe. McCain is attacking the person he feels he will have to go against in November, and that person is not Hillary Clinton.

Hillary and the Giuliani Strategy

Barack Obama is surging, and Hillary Clinton is losing ground fast. So she has decided to employ the same strategy, or let me correct myself, disastrous strategy, of Rudy Giuliani. She is going to sit back, bide her time and let Barack Obama sweep through everything that isn't Texas and Ohio.

This is dangerous, and as we found with Rudy, prone to failure. If you let the other candidate grab all of the momentum the way Hillary is right now, and as Rudy did in the months leading up to Florida, you run the risk of getting run right out of the national landscape. When you run out of the delegate counts for long enough, and your opponent gets to make flowery victory speeches with thousands of cheering supporters while you justify the losses by saying tomorrow will count more, it can really kill the positive news stories, which every candidate needs as much as anything else. Rudy became a non-factor in the Republican race, as he let Romney, Huckabee and McCain steal his thunder, leaving him with nothing when the chips were actually counted.

Obama is about to win two more primaries this coming week, in Wisconsin and Hawaii, as he has pulled ahead in the polls, just as he's pulled ahead in the polls in the last month. He is rising, and the more time Hillary lets him build and build, the brighter his star is going to shine. When Texas and Ohio do roll around, on March 4, where she is currently leading, and where there are more blue collar and Latino voters (with whom Hillary has done very well) she could very well pull ahead in the delegate count, even if Obama seems like a surefire candidate by that time.

Barack did do very well winning over Latinos and blue collar workers in the primaries he won in Virginia, Maryland and D.C., so maybe this is a beginning towards winning over those voters, as well as everyone else that is already sliding to him. Hillary has managed to maintain her lead in the Latino, blue collar and women voters so far, but this could be the beginning of the end of that as well.

An endorsement by John Edwards for either of these two, likely Obama, if anyone, would mean a huge swell of support among blue collar voters, as Edwards would have been their man had he still been in the race. Obviously it's not a dead-set correlation that what Edwards says, people will do, but if they respect him enough to have wanted to vote for him, they will respect his opinion, and a good chunk of them could slide over to Obama, giving him the rise in Texas and Ohio that he needs to break this election wide open.

February is going to be interesting, and I think this strategy of Hillary's...frankly, its going to fail, and when political science classes look over this election in the future, as they will, its groundbreaking in so many different ways, they will see this strategy near the end of the Democratic nominations as one of the greatest political miscalculations in history.

Count on it.

Romney...seemed so perfect didn't he?

Oh Mitt Romney. Such a quick and smooth tongue. So witty and seemingly-personable. Such perfect hair, and teeth. Former Governor of Massachusetts, and rich. Make this man President, right?

I mean, he sounds like a Presidential candidate, like every single one we've seen, maybe even a little better. He's got George Bush-style policies with the ability to form a coherent sentence, and get everyone in the room laughing as he does.

Mitt was the epitome of what the US seems to like in their Presidential candidates, and that was pretty much what killed him in this campaign. Much the same as the John Edwards campaign, Mitt was perfect for a Presidential run, for all the reasons I've mentioned above. Mitt's problem wasn't running into two ground-breaking, once-in-a-generation candidates, as Edwards did, but that people were craving something different, and the a-typical politician just was not their cup o'tea this election.

Romney was also burned by a bit of the loose tongue. And when I say loose tongue, I mean, lying. Mitt is the kind of politician that plays to whatever crowd he is in front of, and when he was running in Massachusetts as a Republican, he obviously had to soften some of the right's more extreme views to be able to have a hope in hell of winning. And he did, coming out pro-abortion, pro-gun law, and not as a tax cutter.

But now, these kinds of views are problems, and so are biting attack ads that include bits of info that aren't quite, what's the word...truthful. Mitt had trouble with both of these things, and it, to an extent, doomed him as well.

So did his religion, as he is a practicing Mormon, and while it helped him take Utah, with a whopping 85% of the vote, there is a real divide with this religion and the mainstream, which I think also caused him problems. not as many as a lot of people predicted, but it didn't help. For example, Mike Huckabee, former priest, won the fundamentalist states. If Mitt's not a Mormon, those states could easily go to him.

A lot of factors contributed to Romney's fall from grace. I've been watching his campaign rise from its beginnings, and I honestly thought, with the man's pedigree, money, look, everything, that he would be the nominee. Even when he was running back in the polls, I was telling everyone to watch out for this man, who was a slicker, more composed and intelligent George W. Bush, and would follow the same type of policies, the failed neo-con policies of the current administration. He would probably have been alright economically, as he is a very successful businessman that turned around the Salt Lake City Olympics and has amassed a huge private fortune, but there's too many other drag-downs that killed his campaign.

Lastly, he had a real cocky sense around him. He was that kid in high school that drove the slickest car, had all the clothes and the girls, and someone most of us weren't, and most of us couldn't relate to. I wish Mitt Romney the best of luck, as he is an intelligent, composed, and well-put together man, but it seems his Presidential aspirations may have to be set aside. For a man that really looks the part, in the end, it seems he can't really fill the role.

Super Tuesday, and the Aftermath...

Sorry for the delay in reporting the final numbers. I had an aggravating connectivity issue that took a while to solve.

Anyways, it looks like on one side, we came out with a clear nominee after the super primary, and on the other, the waters became as muddied as possible.

John McCain will be fightinig on until November, it seems, as he dominated Super Tuesday, winning the large chunk of states and delegates, and jumped about 400 delegates ahead of his nearest rival, Mitt Romney. Romney got hammered, losing the states he needed to have any shot, the ones with conservative bases, to Mike Huckabee. Huckabee played a magical spoiler for Romney, and really handed the campaign to John McCain.

Romney has since dropped out of the campaign, and rightly so. It would have been a waste of money from this point out, with almost no chance of him coming back from the blow Super Tuesday was to his campaign. I'm going to do a whole post in a bit on what happened to Mitt, the man who walks, talks, and looks just like a President, and yet, seemingly won't be.

Onto the Democratic dogfight, which is basically where this campaign is headed from this point out. On the day, Hillary pulled only a handful more delegates than Barack Obama, and squeaked out a narrow victory in California, the richest state, delegate-wise, of them all. Barack won a lot of not tradionally Democratic states, which bodes well for his range of support, as it shows he can walk the walk and pull in independent or even Republican-leaning people to vote for him come November.

What can be thanked for Barack's share of the delegates is the proportionate way the Democrats assign them to their nominees, as even though Hillary won the big population states, like California and New York, Obama still pulled a big portion over to himself. The Republicans, who operate on a winner-take-all type of system, ended up with their clear winner in John McCain, whose margin of victory in the states he won was around the same as Hillary or Barack in the states they won. But he got 100% of the delegates from each state, which gives him the crushing majority he holds now.

Hillary and Barack will be doing this dance for at least another month, maybe even more, maybe all the way to the convention a few months from now. This can only be viewed as bad for her and very good news for him.

Hillary has been slowly trending downwards and Barack has been slowly trending upwards over the last year or so. The curve has really accelerated the past month, with Obama catching up to her in almost every national and state poll, after being down by 20+ just months ago.

Hillary will really fight until the end, as she thought she was going to coast to this nomination, coast into the White House on a Democratic victory and a big 'Hell No' from the US on continuation of Bush-style leadership, but now this young upstart has come out of nowhere and stolen her nomination and her Presidency out from under her.

There is a better chance for Democrats (and sanity) in the US with Barack as the nominee. Its been said a million times, and I'm going to go there again. Hillary has too many negatives to win a national campaign. She can't grow the party to new voters, and some Democrats dislike her so much they will simply not vote, or will turn to a liberal type of Republican, as John McCain is. if 47% of potential voters say they will never consider voting for you, you're going to have a problem winning a plurality.

Obama also has higher numbers against McCain than Clinton does, beating him in almost every demographic and overall by 5-10 points. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is up and down, and within the statistical tie area against McCain nationally, winning ir losing to him by 2-3 points in every major poll taken.

Obama has also raised almost $40 million since the turn of the year, and $8 million alone in the 48 hours since the polls closed on Tuesday. He has at least $20 million still on hand by estimates, and will have all of that going forward to dominate the airwaves in the remaining states with his message.

Hillary, on the other hand, just lent her campaign $5 million of her own personal money to keep it afloat, and there are reports her top advisors and staffers will go without pay for the next month to give them some extra money to throw around. Hillary still has $20 million in her back pocket for a national campaign, but she might want to think about unleashing some of that now, or else there won't be a national campaign to run.

John McCain's job got much easier after Tuesday, as he can pretty much kick back, consolidate, work on unifying the Republican Party behind him (no easy task, I know, but easier when you don't have to fend off Romney) and begin to chip away at both of them. It's a virtual month or two headstart on the national campaign. He'll need it too, as Republicans are going to be a tough sell, but would be much easier against Clinton, and a lot harder against Obama.

I'll leave you with one thought from one of the most brilliant and hated political strategists the US political world has ever seen, Karl Rove. Now don't get me wrong here, I'm not promoting Rove and his brand of divisive political strategy, but it wins elections. He gave two elections to George Bush that the man had no business even being in, let alone winning. With Bush, Rove has proven his mastery, he can even put this man into the White House, twice. But the thought that I wanted to highlight was that Rove wants Hillary to win this nomination, wants it even more than a tradional conservative nominee on the right. He wants this because he knows Hillary is a much easier campaign opponent than Obama. She has skeletons, and a large list of negatives. Barack has less skeletons, and less negatives, and has a groundswell of support.

Rove would love it if Hillary Clinton won, which should tell all of us left of Hitler than Obama is the best chance to save the US in the coming election.

I will, of course, be here throughout the rest and far beyond, and I hope you will be too, because this is shaping up to be the election of a generation, and one that will affect the US, and the world, for a few more generations after that.

Huckabee takes Alabama

Mike Huckabee has taken the Alabama caucuses, giving him 48 additional delegates.

Big win for Huckabee, as it shows he can still pull votes and be an influence at the convention when the eventual winner gets the crown placed upon his head.

Breaking: Barack Obama has won the Minnesota Democratic caucuses, with 88 delegates on the line. They will be divided proportionally amongst the two, but Barack will get about 2/3.

Mitt Romney is speaking right now, declaring he will go on and lead his campaign right into the Republican National Convention, to win the nomination.

With the kinds of numbers we've seen here today, it doesn't seem likely that's the case.

Barack wins Kansas and Conneticut

Barack Obama has taken the states of Kansas and Conneticut, giving him over 100 more delegates in the count.

These two go along with the other states he has carried: Alabama, Illinois, Delaware, Georgia, North Dakota.

Obama is staying in this race, and along with the numbers he is expected to get in California, should be able to make a strong challenge for this nomination with Hillary Clinton.

More to come...

Updated Delegate Numbers

The Democratic Magic Number to win the nomination is: 2025

Through Super Tuesday as of 7pm PST:

Hillary Clinton - 299

Barack Obama - 219

The Republican Magic number to win the nomination is: 1191

Through Super Tuesday as of 7pm PST:

John McCain - 309

Mitt Romney - 135

Mike Huckabee - 54

Ron Paul - 6

As you can see, the Democratic side is still a dogfight, although Hillary has scored serious points in the Northeast. California will still play a big role, but this race is looking to go past today, barring some massive unforseen event.

On the Republican side, McCain still looks to be pulling away, although Mitt Romney did just as expected and won the Utah primary a few minutes ago. Huckabee is still running strong, but he's still not a viable candidate for the Presidency. At this point, he's fighting for a spot on a ticket, and it's not the lead one.

Breaking: McCain wins Oklahoma, with 41 delegates added to his count.

Breaking: Barack Obama wins North Dakota, with 21 delegates coming his way.

Hillary gets New Jersey and Massachusetts

Hillary Clinton has pulled out New Jersey and Massachusetts, where she overcame the high-profile endorsements of the Kennedys, Kerry and Governor Deval. Hillary had gotten the endorsement of the mayor of Boston, which looks to have put her over the top. This is a blow to Obama, he was expected to win here.

Hillary also looks like she is going to pull a lot of Pennsylvania as well, leaving Barack a little shorter in the Northeast than he had probably expected.

Clinton has pulled hundreds of delegates from the two victories in the Northeast, leaving her leapgrogging ahead in momentum and delegates. There is still the mega-primary of California later on tonight to report, but Hillary has moved ahead as of now.

Obama wins Alabama, Huckabee showing strong

Barack Obama has won Alabama, with over 2/3 of the vote, reports CNN. He is also leading in Idaho, North Dakota, and Minnesota.

Obama is matching Clinton step-for-step and state-for-state. This is increasingly looking like it will continue past today's vote.

Huckabee is still winning Georgia, although Romney is doing well in the urban areas, and McCain is doing well in the military areas. Votes are still being counted, and not much is changing right now. It will be down to the wire here.

Huckabee is also winning in Missouri and Minnesota, and it looks like Mitt Romney's chances fade every time another breaking result pours in.

McCain takes big win in New York

John McCain has won the delegate rich New York primary, netting him an additional 101 delegates over and above the number listed below.

McCain is looking like a sure-fire bet to be the Republican nominee, and is running long and away from Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Time to start looking into VP nominees, and Huckabee is looking to be a strong candidate to fill that role.

I will be putting another column up in the coming days about VP candidates for these nominees, in the case of McCain, or potential nominees in the case of Obama and Clinton. Something to look forward to.

Delegate Count

The Democratic Magic Number to win the nomination is: 2025

Through Super Tuesday as of 6pm PST:

Hillary Clinton - 279
Barack Obama - 210

The Republican Magic number to win the nomination is: 1191

Through Super Tuesday as of 6pm PST:

John McCain - 208
Mitt Romney - 99
Mike Huckabee - 54
Ron Paul - 6

As you can see, the Democratic side is still a dogfight, and likely will be past today.

On the Republican side, McCain looks to be pulling away, and Mitt Romney needs to pull out some delegates quick, or else he will be out of this race by tomorrow morning. Same goes for Huckabee.

Hillary wins new York

Hillary Clinton has won her adopted state of New York, whom she represents in the US Senate. There are no numbers yet on the vote, but it looks like Hillary has taken 3/4-2/3 of the vote, leaving her with a large chunk of the 200+ delegates up for grabs in the second-most populous state.

All of the other states reporting at 6pm have no clear winner, even in John McCain's home state of Arizona. Surprising that McCain didn't pull his own state so overwhelmingly that it wasn't immediately available to call, as Hillary did.

Tennessee is still up in the air, but it looks like John McCain may have put another state into his pocket.

Clinton is also ahead in early numbers in Massachusetts, which is a tad surprising with all the high-profile endorsements Obama has gotten from the state's politicians like the Kennedys, John Kerry and the state's governor. This could be big for Hillary, from a PR standpoint, as Massachusetts doesn't have a powerhouse amount of delegates, but if Hillary wins, she will have done so in spite of the Democratic establishment in the area turning against her.

Breaking: Barack Obama pulls Delaware, with all 23 delegates going to him.

McCain takes Delaware, big results up soon

John McCain has won the winner-take all contest in Delaware, with Mitt Romney finishing second, and Huckabee third, CNN is reporting. McCain appears to be pulling away, with Romney only pulling Massachusetts, Huckabee with West Virginia, and McCain with all the rest. His delegates and momentum are growing, and Romney may not be able to keep up.

Also, within 15 mins, large states on the east coast, such as new York, will be closing their polls.

Results on those as soon as they happen.

Hillary and Huckabee both take Arkansas

Not too surprising of a move, but Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee have taken the respective votes in the state of Arkansas.

Both were expected to win. Hillary based on Bill's long governorship and their continued favorability in the state. Huckabee was a popular Governor of this state for over ten years, so his victory was nearly assured as well.

Breaking: Hillary Clinton takes Tennessee as well, with about 54% of the vote, with 3% of the polls reporting.

Huckabee is also growing as the poll results roll in in Georgia. He is 5% up with about a quarter of the votes counted.

More on the states as the results are rolling in.

McCain carries New Jersey

John McCain has won the populous primary of New Jersey over Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee, by a large margin.

McCain is over 60 delegates ahead now over Huckabee and Romney so far in the Super Tuesday polling.

Also, in a breaking result, Hillary Clinton is taking New Jersey by a 2-1 margin over Barack Obama, although these results, as with the above, are very early.

Multiple State Results - Illinois, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Oklahoma

It looks like Barack Obama has won his home state of Illinois, as predicted, and in the same state John McCain has won on the Republican side. McCain has also carried Conneticut, and Mitt Romney has taken his home state of Massachusetts. Hillary Clinton has taken Oklahoma.

More reports on numbers in a bit, but I thought I'd report these early numbers on wins in the Republican and Democratic primaries.

Obama Wins Georgia, GOP still too close

It looks as though Sen. Barack Obama has won the Georgia Democratic primary. Early exit polls from the state, which just closed its ballots as of half an our ago, show Obama taking 2/3 of the vote among Democrats in the state who turned out the primary. Early results show Obama with 66% of the ballots cast, with Hillary taking the rest. Of course this is early, but Georgia is very rich with delegates for the one who takes the lion's share of the vote, and it looks like Obama right now.

The Republicans are still fighting it out in the state, with each of the three main candidates pulling around 30% right now, with Ron Paul pulling the rest. This is a surprising turnout for McCain, as Georgia is quite a conservative state, but he seems to be pulling a large contingent of the military vote, which is strong. Huckabee is picking up the Evangelical vote, and pushing Romney's numbers down amongst conservatives. The one who comes out the winner will pick up a big chunk of delegates, as of course, the Republicans run a winner-take-all campaign. Apparently McCain has spent a large percent of his time over the last two days in the northeast, in places like Massachusetts and New York, which surely cannot help him in the conservative southern states where he needed as much face-time as possible to convince these people that he was their candidate, strong conservative credentials or not.

By staying up north, where any Republicans would likely choose him anyways, McCain has neglected a large contingent of folks that make up the Republican electorate, and if he does go on to become the party's nominee, he may regret not giving the South more attention at this stage in the game. People don't have short memories when it comes to this sort of thing.

I'll stick with this and anything else, as the next polls close in just about 45 minutes...

John Edwards, An Obituary

Oh John Edwards, so much promise, so much heart, and so many sound and defined policies. And yet, gone so soon...

Edwards is a man who is perfect for the Presidency. He grew up with almost nothing, so he remembers how a majority of people in the US now live. He's self-made, and he has the right priorities, such as Universal Healthcare programs, fighting a war on poverty and taking on corporate interests in Washington. Great, right? All good things, and issues people can get behind and feel good about getting behind.

The only problem is, that John Edwards never had a hope in hell of winning this nomination.

When he started his campaign, the widely held belief was that Hillary Clinton was the de-facto nominee, even before the process started. Edwards was going to position himself as a new-age candidate, and Hillary as someone of the old guard, a Washington insider. And that is exactly what he did.

Only problem is that there was someone else who blazed in and took up that mantle. Pretty plainly, it was Barack Obama that knocked Edwards out, and nothing more.

Edwards had great goals, great policies, he was from the South, which is always a good thing for a Democratic nominee, and he was well-liked and respected by his colleagues and the voters. But Barack just had so much more right now that the country is craving.

Edwards' other problem was that he was beginning to become an also-ran, running and losing the nomination in '04 to Kerry, then losing the general election as the VP nominee, and now running in a deep third place this cycle. He started to take on the air of someone that had a great vision, but just couldn't close the deal.

I think John Edwards would make a fantastic President, and he still may one day, but unfortunately, he was running in the wrong year. Against two powerful, groundbreaking candidates, he barely got a sniff, and he deserved so much more.

From launching his campaign in the 9th Ward in New Orleans, to ending it in the very same place, then walking off to the background to build a house for Habitat for Humanity, John Edwards was a good man, and a good candidate, but just came along at the wrong time, and miscalculated his chances this time around.

Give it a decade, maybe a little more. Edwards can do more work for the poor, the disaffected, make a difference outside the political process, as Al Gore has done. Love Al or hate him, he has brought attention onto Climate Change, and that is a plus. Edwards can do the same, he can make the change he so desperately wanted to by entering the race in the first place, then come back around when the Clintons, the Obamas, even the Gores of the landscape have passed, and win himself the position he so richly deserves.

I have a confession, I'm in love with a Republican

Well, a Libertarian, but that's just extreme Republicanism anyways. The one I am currently in love with would of course be the premier libertarian on the scene today. Ron Paul.

Watching the Republican debate the other night, I was struck by how on the ball and committed to the real problems facing the US today this man is, and how doggedly he has tried to get his voice into this debate.

While Mitt Romney and John McCain were squabbling over the context of Romney using the term 'timetable', and what that term would mean, Paul interjected himself into the debate, with real ideas not about whether to withdraw from Iraq or not, but that they shouldn't have gone in the first place, that they should be debating whether the US should be interventionists or isolationists, the economy, healthcare, education, tax reduction and y'know, things that matter to the regular, everyday, middle class voter. Y'know, the same ones that will make up 40-50% of the electorate?

Now while I'm not a libertarian, and far from it actually, I always love seeing someone so committed to their cause state their argument so plainly and rationally in the face of pettiness. I don't think any of the Republican nominees would be the right choice, but out of all of them, I think Ron Paul would probably do the best job. He wouldn't re-write the US Constitution to include more religious references (Huckabee), double the size of Guantanamo Bay (Romney), or keep the US in Iraq for a “hundred years” (McCain).

He would stop the US from being the world police, he would stop stomping all over 90% of the country to benefit the top 10%, and he would make things a lot more workable for the majority of Americans.

He would also do plenty of things I'm not in favor of, such as cutting taxes. There wouldn't be supportive government programs such as universal healthcare, which should be a pillar of democratic society, as a representative government is in place to benefit the citizens, or Social Security. Education would likely become less subsidized, instead of more-so, as is needed.

Libertarians put the burden on the individual to provide for themselves in a free and open market, but that market simply isn't there, as workers are not valued as prized and important components, but numbers to generate profits. I'm not going to get into a whole diatribe about corporations and the working person, but all I will say is without a fundamental overhaul of the way the US economy is structured, which is towards the rich, everyone from the middle-class down will not have the resources to make these kinds of free and open choices that they need to survive, such as medical insurance, money for post-secondary education, and retirement security. This is the reason the US economy is in a downturn. The Bush administration has put too much emphasis on the individual to secure their own futures, without giving them the ability to have the resources to do so.

If Ron Paul gets elected (fat chance, I know) he would likely bring about the kind of change necessary to make a Libertarian-style system work, but it would be a long, tough road, and I'm not sure the US electorate has the stomach to weather that kind of storm and let the government that set them on that road stay in power. It’s always the short-term fix that wins elections, not sound, long-term policies that will bear fruit after a long slogging.

Libertarianism, and Ron Paul by extension, are long slogs, and while it possibly could turn out for the better, and Ron Paul is a strong and determined man who I have a lot of respect for, people don't have the stomach for it.

Ron, we could have been beautiful, and some place in my political heart, I'll always have a place for you, but for now, I think its best if we go our separate ways...

Huckabee wins West Virginia

Mike Huckabee has won the West Virginia Republican convention, with a slim majority of the vote over Mitt Romney.

W. Virginia votes on a plurality-majority type system, much as it would in the national elections, and if no one garners 50% support in the first round, they rangle behind the scenes and vote again.

This happened, with Mitt Romney winning the initial vote, but not a full 50% majority. Huckabee ran a close second, and McCain was a distant third, as this is an overwhelmingly Christian conservative state.

So McCain, at this point, saw a political opportunity and shrewdly threw his supporters behind Huckabee, to deny his closest rival Romney a big opening victory on Super Tuesday. Huckabee is going to play a role in the race from this point forward, but I don't think anyone believes he is going to take the crown overall. All McCain did here was take 18 delegates away from Mitt Romney when they both roll into the Republican National Convention.

Smart, very, very smart, and I respect the move. It's power politics at its best, and I applaud McCain for doing so.

Huckabee is looking good as a possible VP nominee to McCain, as he gives him the Christian conservative vote, as well as a strong number 2, that ran third nationally all through the race. This could be the start of a ball rolling on that type of ticket nationally, but that might be getting a bit ahead of everything.

For now, Huckabee has scored a good PR win, McCain denied his nearest, and only viable rival the delegates and PR he so richly needs, and Romney, well Romney gets nothing out of the deal, except out-manuevered...

I'll be back with more updates as they hit the airwaves.

Super Tuesday is here!

The political Superbowl has arrived people, and I'll be watching and reporting as the polls roll in.

With such rich delegate states as California, New York and Illinois up for grabs, this day could define what is turning out to be an Presidential election that will shape all of our lives for a generation.

On the Democrat side, Clinton and Obama are in a virtual tie nationally, and in California. Both are leading their home states, Barack his actual home state in Illinois, Hillary her adopted one in New York, and both will likely score big victories. It is not a winner-take all type vote, as the Republican party runs, so we may very well come out of this hugely important day still at a standstill as to who the Democratic nominee. Barack seems to have more resources and more momentum on his side, so if this race goes further, the downward trending of Hillary and the upward trending of Barack will likely continue. Hillary wants this race to stop today, but I don't think that's going to happen, and the longer it goes, the more Barack has the advantage.

On the Republican side, the country is really being split. The Christian, right-wing conservatives are having to choose between someone who is unpalatable in a general election but has good conservative 'value' positions, Mike Huckabee, and a man that no one seems to trust, but is seen as the only alternative in a national campaign to John McCain, Mitt Romney. McCain is running ahead of them both nationally, but his conservative positions don't really get the motor turning as much as Huckabee and Romney do. Huckabee is mainly a spoiler now, but he could easily 'Ralph Nader' this race away from Romney by pulling in the Christian conservative vote away enough to let McCain slip by on his national security credentials.

This is an amazing and interesting race, and like I said above, one that will decide all of our fates for a generation. Will the US renew themselves, elect a progressive leader that will change the world's opinion of the lone superpower, or will they doggedly stay with a Bush-style politician, and leave their standing with the world as low as it is right now?

This affects us all, Canadian, American, Afghani, Iraqi...I could name them all. The US sets the tone for the world, and they are electing the man or woman that will set that tone for at least the next 4 years.

Vote smart, vote well, vote with a future in mind, not with just a single issue. Vote overall, and vote for the person y0u think will change the US, and the world, for the better when they are done sitting in the Oval Office.

Best of luck, go change the world today....