Are the Liberals Losing This Generation?

I'm coming to the realiztion that this Liberal leadership race is probably about the most important in the history of the party.

A heavy statement, I know, but here's something even weightier :

This leader will decide whether the Liberal Party lives on past the next 5-10 years, or whether it fades into obscurity.

The reason I say these things is that I don't see anyone in this generation really grabbing onto them as an opposing force to the right wing, which is galvanized behind one party, as opposed to left, which is fragmented among three. The salvation of young people right now, whether they actually vote or not, seems to lie with the NDP, or to a lesser extent, the Greens.

Everyone I spoke to, and almost everything I read over the course of the campaign from those under 30 seemed to be pulling for Jack and the orange crew, followed by May and the Greens. Dion and the Grits as a whole were almost nowhere to be found.

The next leader will have to be somewhat generational, someone able to bridge the gap between old and young as Martin Cauchon promised to be when he bandied around throwing his name into the ring, as they will need to stem the tide of under-30s over to the other two left-wing parties, or the left will simple get more fragmented as younger folk mark their ballots for the NDP and Greens and older left-leaners continuing marking theirs Grit.

We need to pull the left together if we ever hope to be in government again, and a generational fragmentation is the complete opposite direction of that.

Now, while I think age is a concern this time, as no other really has been, it doesn't disqualify in any way those that are somewhat advanced in that category, such as Rae, Ignatieff or McKenna. Experience does not equal an inability to reach out to the youth. It may make it harder, but all that really matters is the substance of your words and actions, not what year it says on a birth certificate.

There needs to be a significant youth outreach, aside from the Young Liberals or any other group already existing. This needs to be a central plank of not just the party, but of the leadership contest itself as well.

We are going to be witnessing a pseudo-election campaign over the next 6 months, and there needs to be a heavy emphasis on pulling youth into the process. An e-campaign, if you will.

Look at Barack Obama. The man has pulled in millions, hundreds of millions in fact, due to his advanced web presence. That presence, along with his 3 million-plus email list, are one of the many reasons why he won the primary and is now pulling away with the general election.

Elections have largely been taken to the 'net, and away from the more traditional sources such as TV, Radio and mailers.

The beauty of the e-campaign too is that it is largely cost-free. Things like Facebook, Twitter, podcasts, etc, cost little to nothing, and make a significant impact on the younger people of this country, as we are all over these services pretty much every day.

Fundraising is also a big concern for the Liberals after being dominated by the Tories, and the e-campaign takes care of that in two ways. As I said above, it's relatively cheap so this kind of outreach won't hurt the overall bottom line that much, if at all, and also, they can raise money online, through the grassroots, while getting them connected and into the party and its leaders.

There is no drawback to a heavy Internet presence, and only leaps and bounds to gain.

People that already identify as Liberals and are not web-savvy are not going to be affected, as they'll likely keep on the same news sources they have their entire lives, which are those traditional ones that Liberals already market to.

Basically, the gist of this argument is pulling the Liberals into the 21st century, and making them seem like they actually can empathize with the issues of the youth voters in this country.

Sure, people in my demo don't vote as much as they should, but that's not a permanent problem, and it is something that is easily fixable. The youth vote is powerful, and if a party can actually go out there and harvest those immense numbers, we are looking at a redesign of the electoral maps from the Pacific to the Atlantic.

It is not simply the 'net though, as there needs to be campus outreaches, people at concerts handing out flyers and buttons, and other activities of the like to get those under-30s thinking about the future of their country, where it is headed, and instilling the belief that they can play a role in that future too, because up until now, I don't think people really have felt all that included in the process.

This whole youth-based outreach business obviously needs to be in tandem with actual policies that help people get in school, get jobs, and lead our country forward, especially as Baby Boomers are moving into their sunset years, and we will all need to pick up that slack left behind in their wake.

The under-30s are going to be the engine of the economy very soon, and if we lose them to the Conservatives, we'll be shut out of power for decades.

The Liberal Leadership : The Race, and the New Political Reality

With Stephane Dion resigning this past Monday as leader of the Liberal Party, (thank God) it opens up a new race for the person that will succeed him and lead the Grits into the next election, and hopefully further.

There are already contenders floating around, even as Dion's gravestone is still being carved.

Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, the two from which the last leader should have been chosen, will almost certainly be in the running once again, as their leadership campaign machines are still warm under the hood from the last race. Both of these two, as last time, have even-to-better odds of being the next leader in 2009. Hopefully we don't see another dark horse backroom deal like the one that screwed both of these men in 2006. If they lose, they lose, but Dion pulled 18% on the first ballot in '06 and ended up the leader. That stinks worse than roadkill on a 40 degree day.

Today, Martin Cauchon, a member from the Chretien era, has said he may also consider tossing his hat into the ring, citing the need for a 'generational change'. He is experienced in government, a former Cabinet minister, and is only in his late 40s, well under the 60-plus years of both Ignatieff and Rae. He could have a shot, but with Dion doing so badly, mostly based on his communication skills, I find it hard to believe the Liberals would appoint another Francophone to their leadership. Aside from that, his age and experience would both be tremendous assets. We'll see where that goes, but I'm labelling him as a long shot for now.

There are also some other repeat candidates, aside from Rae and Ignatieff.

Gerard Kennedy, the man that gave us Stephane Dion is likely to run again, as is Martha Hall Findley, who may find herself on better footing this time around than last, as she is now a sitting MP. Same with Kennedy.

They are still considered very long-shot tries and if either wins, I will be stunned, but in that same sense, who saw Dion as viable last time?

The most intriguing of all the candidates, at least in my mind, is Frank McKenna, the former premier of New Brunswick, Canadian Ambassador to the US, and current Deputy Chairman of TD Bank.

He has the cred, both politically and economically to blow everyone else out of the water.

Frankly, he would have done so in 2006 had he chosen to run, deciding instead to step aside, later taking the TD gig.

This race will be shaped by him, and whether he gives it a go this time around. If he does not, I expect Rae or Ignatieff to take the mantle handily.

This seems like very much a re-do of the disastrous 2006 choice, with Dion obviously not around to swipe it this time.

The leadership choice will be made in May of 2009 in Vancouver (yay, my home city) and it will lay the groundwork for the Liberal Party for what I think will be at least the next decade, as two disastrous choices in a row could doom them to obscurity (If Dion hasn't already done so).

The Liberals are in serious need of a kick-start, as they have died as a party in BC, finishing fourth in most ridings behind even the Greens, getting knocked around badly in Quebec and losing ground in Ontario.

They also are very much in need of an overhaul in the way they fundraise, as Harper and the Tories absolutely killed them in the financial race this cycle, allowing them to run attack ad after attack ad and basically assassinate Stephane Dion's character before he really even got rolling.

Liberals can cry all they want about the right wing propoganda machine killing them this cycle, but that is part of the game, and if they can't hold their ground in that part of the game, they will lose every single time.

No one likes attack ads, but they work, and the Liberals need to recognize the reality of the situation.

You can whine, or you can win, and whether it's Ignatieff, Rae, McKenna, Cauchon, Kennedy, Hall-Findley or someone else, they need to go on the offensive as soon as they take the keys, or the Liberals will be looking for a new leader once again in a few years.

The Greens : Breakthrough or Death Blow?

The much-lamented non-breakthrough of the Green Party to win any seats in Parliament was a bit of a disappointment, but in reality, I would have been shocked if they had.

Judging by the tone of at least Elizabeth May and Adrianne Carr in their post-loss interviews, they seemed to feel the same way.

My view on the Greens is that this was, in fact, their breakthrough election.

Stay with me now.

This was the first time that the Greens weren't seen as a fringe, throw-away your vote party. They were seen as a viable alternative, and they actually made some pretty good gains in the popular vote, and in BC.

In terms of the popular vote, they grew by about 3%, which guarantees them another few million in public funds to run their party for the next few years, and become a more viable force in the next election cycle.

Canadians aren't huge fans of dramatic or drastic changes, and while electing a Green MP wouldn't have entered that territory, it was enough of a change to make people pause, if for no more than this cycle, and also was based on the ridings those prominent Greens were running in.

I wish Elizabeth May didn't run in Central Nova against Peter McKay. I wish Adrianne Carr didn't run against Hedy Fry and Lorne Mayencourt in Vancouver Centre. These are the two highest profile Greens, being respectively their leader and deputy leader, so it was relatively imperative that one of them enter Parliament if the Greens were actually going to be anything more than a bump in the road in Canadian politics.

May chose Nova because she grew up there, which is completely admirable, and the way decisions of which riding to take a crack should start from. But not when it's the Defense Minister who currently sits there, and not when it's a strong blue riding. She came a strong second, partially because there was no Liberal in the riding, but mostly because May is an incredibly gifted orator and politician, and would actually do more for Central Nova than people could ever hope for from McKay.

Alas, it was not to be. And furthermore, May is going to run in the same riding the next time around. Damn.

Here sits the best, most dynamic and intelligent Green Leader we have seen on the national scene, and she is going to again throw herself into what is essentially an unwinnable riding against Peter McKay. If she ran out in BC this cycle, or next, she would likely be sitting in the benches. Instead, she will likely lose, and the Greens will eventually be forced to turn to a leader that actually has a chance of sitting in Parliament, because at the end of the day, that is the only way to do anything you want to do politically in this country. I honestly love Elizabeth May, her candor, her skills and her beliefs, but I'll be shocked out of my shoes if she's ever the MP for Central Nova.

In terms of Carr, this was another missed chance to make an impact, as she was part of the Greens national face, appearing in commercials and having the title of Deputy Leader. She ran in the strongest riding in Vancouver, and finished a distant fourth. No matter what the polls showed, Carr tanked.

Hedy Fry has now won 6 elections, Lorne Mayencourt has high name recognition from being an MLA in the riding, and Michael Byers of the NDP was expected to have a strong showing. Against all this, Carr threw herself into the mix. As with May, a more strategic riding choice could have sent a Green MP to Ottawa.

I see plenty of sunshine around the edges of the shutout though. The Greens finished above the Liberals in almost every BC riding breakdown I saw over the course of last night, pulling significant numbers of votes. There is room to grow, but only at the expense of the Liberals, because at the end of the day, Green ideology is essentially very Liberal in nature, obviously with a heavier emphasis on the environment.

They can take some of the steam out of the NDP as well, but seem to pull in more disaffected Liberals than anyone else.

Splitting votes between the three will only lead to more and stronger Conservative governments, so maybe something like the Dion-May deal to not run candidates in each others ridings could be tried on a larger scale. That is a different subject for a different day though, as is proportional representation, which seems ever more prevalent on the minds of people after seeing the Bloc pull 50 seats out of 10% popular vote, and the Greens pull zero, when their popular vote totals were about 7%.

I understand it is not the best juxtaposition to put these 2 parties together, but when we talk straight numbers, the system we have seems even worse than most people believe it to be.

The Greens are not dead, not by a long shot, and if May stays as leader, and they keep getting themselves into debates, and into the conversation, they will eventually find themselves in Parliament as well.

Election Live Blogging : Fortier Loses Again

Michel Fortier, the unelected member of Stephen Harper's cabinet, who lost his last race and was appointed to the Senate to be able to serve in Cabinet, has lost again.

Does anyone think Harper will pull the same stunt again for the man he clearly wanted in that seat?

Fortier already resigned his Senate seat to run, so my guess would be no. Then again, who thought Harper would have done such a thing anyways?

Lots more to come from this election night.

Looks like another Conservative minority, with little movement seat-wise.

The question tomorrow morning may not be who won, but why we just spent $300 million dollars on what amounts to the status quo.

There wasn't much need for an election, outside of Harper's bare ambition for a majority, and it looks like he will not get it yet again...

The World Changes This Fall -- For Better or Worse is Up to Us

The electoral maps are shifting like crazy right now, with Obama booming and Harper falling, and I couldn't be happier about either one.

Economy, economy, economy. The one issue people care about, here, and down South. The one thing that affects everyone, and the one thing that Conservatives and Republicans lose on every single time.

Whenever the economy starts to trend down, people turn to the left to resurrect it.

The most striking example, and one that has an immense parallel to today would be FDR's election in the midst of the Depression. The New Deal came along after he stepped in, and revolutionized the way the government does business, and the values of an entire nation.

The same opportunities lie bare right now in the US, and even to an extent here.

Stephane Dion is no FDR, and at best a poor man's Obama, but his Green Shift would bring a dramatic, future-reaching change to the Canadian economy that is desperately needed right now.

I am not comfy with the thought of Dion being the face of Canada, but on his policy proposals alone, the man will change us for the better. Not to get too far deep into the Green Shift, but as I have ranted in the past in this space, and others, flipping our economy to be Green-based, with innovations and Canadian-made green technology that we can then go sell and market abroad would make us akin to oil powers in today's age, like Saudi Arabia. It will create green collar jobs, and we will then be on the cutting edge of technology the entire globe will be using in a few decades. We will control patents, and be able to provide our economy with a stable, renewable, clean base for the next ten generations, as opposed to the dirty, fluctuating and unstable footing we and the previous few have stood on.

Ok, Green Shift / carbon tax rant over.

In terms of Obama, there is nothing overarching like a Green Shift, but with promises to invest in those very same technologies in the US, like wind, solar, etc, he is also putting his country on the same footing, and looking to the future, not staying mired in the present and past of carbon-based economic models.

That, along with ambitious healthcare proposals, ending the war in Iraq, giving the middle class back their country and taking it from the 1% that George W let it be consolidated into will fundamentally change how Americans see their country, and therefore the beliefs that country reflects, and it can only be viewed as for the better, because it cannot get any worse than it is right now.

In the face of the economic issues that he helped to propagate, Johnny Mac has really done nothing but flounder and flip flop his way through the last few weeks, watching his polling numbers sink almost in tune with the stock market.

Now we have William Ayers on the political map again because of it, as Johnny figured out he simply cannot win on economics, and desperately needs a change in subject. This crap was tried and failed badly in the primaries, and it will do so on this stage as well.

McCain is behind in several key states, and even some that should be on lockdown. All the so-called battleground states, like Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Nevada, all show 10+ leads for Obama in the polls, something that cannot be explained away by margins of error, or anything else other than he is WINNING.

Plain and simple, he is winning, and only electoral fraud or god forbid, assassination is going to stop this man from sitting in the White House January 20, 2009.

On that front, the McCain-Palin ticket is beginning to race-bait, starting a few days ago by inciting crowds to a frenzy, to the point where they have yelled out, 'Kill him', 'terrorist', and 'Off with his head', obviously referencing the junior Senator from Illinois. Is it just me, or is this seriously dangerous territory to be running on? The noble maverick-y candidate has clearly lost that honor he touts so frequently, if he ever really had it in the first place. Clearly the memories of the sting of George W's baseless attacks in 2000 have faded away, replaced by a hunger to win at all costs.

Obama is projecting out at 350+ on some electoral maps, and at least 300+ on some of the less ambitious or gutsy pollsters (270 to win). Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com, the single best polling site out there, has Obama winning 9/10 times in his electoral predictions, which all through the primaries proved to be about as rock-solid as can be.

It has never looked better for the good Senator in the 20 months he has been in this game, and I have a sneaky suspicion that trend will continue on through November 4.

Back to Canada, before we close.

Harper's poll numbers have been dwindling in the past week or so, down to the point where Dion is nearing the margin or error.

My belief is that his drop is two-fold. First, people are watching him brush off the economic crisis as nothing more than background noise, while watching the economy of the country where 80% of our exports go completely tank. If they have issues with liquidity, and being able to buy anything, let alone import our lumber and other commodities, who do you think is going to feel the pain first?

Harper has shown little to no leadership here, repeating over and over that the Canadian economy is strong. Platitudes and words are all well and good, but I want contingency plans, I want clear visions of what we can do if the US gets into really serious trouble. We get nothing but essentially this : 'Nah, don't worry about it, we're cool'. That doesn't suffice from a Prime Minister.

The second of those two folds is Dion, who has been coming on strong, starting in the English debate, where he actually showed he has the chops to stand toe-to-toe with Harper on the issues of the day.

I find this is what worried people, and myself, the most about a Dion government, that he would be a little weakling drip. I think he has shown that's not the case, and the only thing left is whether people get on board with the Green Shift, which is not a foregone conclusion by any sense.

Dion still has a communication problem, and with a complex, tax-shifting policy, that is a serious issue. I still don't think he will end up being Prime Minister, but if he can stem the Conservative flow to a majority, he's good in my books.

Jack has run strong so far, but he will never be PM with that orange albatross around his neck. Same with Elizabeth May, except hers is tinged Green. Both of these two are more effective communicators, and better leaders than Stephane Dion, and yet, they chose parties that can never actually govern.

Ideological people are great, and the people that end up really caring enough to effect change in the end, but at some point, you have to see the only path to 24 Sussex is a little red / blue road, not orange or green.

We are days away from Canada's choice, and about three weeks from the US's. This is special ground my friends (sorry to steal the line Johnny ;)), and this time in politics will be talked about and studied for a long time into the future.

Game-changing, ground-breaking, paradigm-altering races.

I'm just glad I'm around to take it all in.

Meeting Elizabeth May, Peter McKay , and Discussing Charter Rights

Well, it wasn't me, but it was my significant other, Lindsay.

She lives on the East Coast, in Antigonish, Nova Scotia, home of St Francis Xavier University, which she attends, and also the site of the local candidates debate for the riding of Central Nova last night.

In this riding, the very impressive Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is trying to wedge herself and the Greens into Parliament by knocking off Nova Scotia native son and Defense Minister Peter McKay.

At first glance, this does seem, frankly, insane. Going up against a Cabinet Minister, from a town within the riding, who is running for the party that has had an iron grip on the seat for decades, etc. But, all that outsider, fringe party, insurmountable stuff is getting turned on its head. May has a shot, and she showed why last night.

She was smart, on the ball, rational and reasonable, just like she was in the Federal debates last week. The crowd, chocked full of university students, was fully on her side, as the Liberals aren't running a candidate in the riding, and the NDP candidate is completely and utterly out of their league with two such strong and notable candidates.

She runs her campaign out of Antigonish, and clearly has a good chunk of the town on her side, just based on the amount of signs populating lawns. The riding is not just Antigonish however, as it covers a wide area, but May has more of a chance of knocking out McKay than any Liberal or NDP member has done so far.

After the debate, Lindsay got a chance to speak with both McKay and May, and got a chance to bring up the question to McKay that had gotten cut from the actual debate due to time constraints.

A little background before unleashing the whole story. The Nova Scotia Conservative provincial government has new regulations in place that force those that have taken prescription drugs for a disorder such as depression or post-traumatic stress disorder to declare those conditions and the drugs taken on their driver's licenses.

The government says it is due to safety concerns over people driving under the influence of medication, but that is a little hard to swallow with no evidence that these kinds of people have been a danger, or the drugs taken will impair driving ability.

So, basically what is in place now will force people to either admit to the public record their private medical conditions, or simply ignore treatment to avoid having to do so. Neither of those jives with my values as a Canadian.

I smell a Charter violation there, and so did Lindsay. So she decided to pose the question of the viability of such a law from a Charter standpoint to the one and only Peter McKay.

Now, while provincial and federal parties aren't specifically aligned together (In BC they couldn't be more of a separate entity), apparently on the East Coast it is much more of a central party than translates policy from the top down.

So, talking to a Cabinet member of the ruling Conservatives federally can very much have an impact on the Conservative party provincially.

She posed the question, they went back and forth and debated for 10-15 minutes, and then, the shining light appeared.

Peter McKay admitted the law was a violation of our Charter Rights, and pledged to do what he could to affect some positive change on the matter.

McKay went against his own party, and conversed with a constituent on a personal level. I admire that, and I have a lot more respect for the man now than I think I ever have. Up to this point, he seemed nothing more than the guy that was jilted by Belinda Stronach and sold his soul to Stephen Harper to unite the right.

They exchanged email addresses, and he also gave her some links and contact information for the provincial and federal health ministers, so that she could run down some of the details on her time.

Obviously, that doesn't mean the law is repealed, or that it will be tomorrow, but there is a commitment on record from a very powerful minister to the effect that it should be. That my friends, is a pretty big deal.

I want to congratulate Lindsay for standing toe-to-toe with a very seasoned politician, and winning him over in the end. That's not an easy task, especially when that politician resides in the spin and negativity of the right wing.

Just so you know I'm not fakin', here's the pics of Lindsay and Elizabeth May, and with Peter McKay