Presidential, Federal, Municipal, Oh My! - Election Tidbits From All Sides

There are so many elections and races going on right now, it's hard for the most fervent political fans to stay with everything that comes across the wire.

There are exciting races happening everywhere.

There is obviously the US Presidential elections, covered ad nauseum, the still-blooming federal election here in Canada, and for those of us in the Vancouver area, as I myself am, there is also the very intriguing Mayoral race to follow.

Whew.

First up, Vancouver Mayor.

I like the energy Gregor Robertson and his youth have brought to the campaign, and I have actually signed up to volunteer for him. He scored a huge boon yesterday when COPE and the municipal Green Party agreed to run a unified left wing slate against the NPA, and when COPE more importantly, chose not to run a candidate of their own, and instead back Robertson straight up.

That's huge, because a divided left wing is what handed Sam Sullivan the keys to City Hall in the first place three years ago.

Furthermore, I flat out disrespect the way Peter Ladner came into this race, sweeping the NPA's nomination away from Sam Sullivan, a man who just based on personal story, let alone being the sitting Mayor, deserves to run and defend his record. He will not get the chance to do that and has since stepped away from politics. It was a dishonest and immoral way to jump onto the main stage for Ladner, and simply, his whole campaign just feels dirty because of it.

Federal Election.

Dion is tanking, badly. He is running last in the province, and a shocking poll out today shows the Greens actually running second (!) to the Conservatives, and furthermore, they are only 2 points behind, 26%-24%

That is flat out amazing. Contained in that link is also the incredibly bad news for Dion and the Liberals, that they are running dead last in BC. The NDP support is flagging as well.

The real story in BC and across the country it seems, is with the Greens. This comes from a number of factors.

a) People don't really like Stephen Harper.
b) People think Stephane Dion is a drip, and they don't trust him.
c) Jack Layton comes off as a used car salesman.

People want some change, but they have nowhere to turn. The Barack Obama syndrome run amuck.

Jack can try to be Barack all he wants, and he can say the word change as many times as it can get past that 'stache, but he simply does not have the gravitas of the man across the 49th parallel.

There is no one fresh, except for Elizabeth May and her slate. She is benefiting from apathy with not one party, but three, and four if you count the Bloc, which I don't.

There has never been such a bland slate for a somewhat-fringe party to pick up gains from, but by God, this seems to be it. The Greens should do well this cycle, barring some unforeseen game-changer.

Harper is doing okay for the campaign he is trying to run, which is the 'make Dion look like shit' strategy. Dion is doing a lot of the job for him, but Harper is countering anything positive about the Liberals very effectively.

Bland, uninspiring campaign so far, except May, she is performing wonderfully.

Presidential Elections.

I honestly feel myself being a little soured towards the Presidential campaign right now. Firstly, the strict partisanship that everyone has aligned into, which completely squashes any kind of independent thought outside of what flows from Obama and McCain, which is then disseminated by talking heads and surrogates a thousand times over.

Secondly, I am a very rational person. I take everything, break it down, follow it to its logical end and go with it, and any time that doesn't happen, for me, is cause for a headache. McCain's lies, distortions and illogical explanations and justifications for those lies and distortions has caused me to reach for the aspirin too many times over the past few weeks, starting with the Palin nomination.

Mostly, it is her bare incompetence, but also the reasoning surrogates come up with as to why she isn't incompetent, such as, foreign policy - Russia is close to Alaska / energy (?), denials of the Road to Nowhere, especially after explicit evidence was found and distributed that she supported it, the whole Troopergate debacle that has now had about four different explanations, and the family rights anti-abortion advocate who says how happy she is for 'the choice her daughter made' when she wants to strip that very choice from those in the same situation.

And to see everyone lap it up has just kind of turned me off. McCain got a bounce out of it and is still running even with Obama in a lot of swing states and nationally. That honestly infuriates me. I cannot see how people can compare the two, on ideas, substance, actions, words, anything, and not see McCain is as transparent as a piece of saran wrap. It's like no one can see the incredibly grave risks posed by a McCain presidency, or they simply don't care.

The financial collapse of today has finally turned the attention off of lipstick and pigs and onto actual issues, which is a nice change of pace, and also completely out of McCain's comfort zone, which mainly consists of his POW time.

There are too many negatives with McCain, and so many positives with Obama, I'm not even going to attempt to fill the space. It would take the whole night.

I didn't mean to rant on the US race, but sometimes, you just have to go with what's going, and that went.

Bottom line, good news for Gregor Robertson, bad news for Dion, good news for May and the Greens, and bad news for anyone with a rational mind, and prone to headaches induced by right-wing talking points.

Election Tidbits - Greens Shut Out, Harper and Layton Fast Out of the Gate, Dion Lags

It looks like Elizabeth May and the Greens are going to be shut out of another leaders debate. The decision was made today by a group of Canadian television broadcasters who actually run the debates on their airwaves to only host the Conservative, Liberal, NDP and Bloc parties for the two debates slated for early October.

Unlike all the other times, this time I actually feel they should be there.

They are a legitimate national party now. They are not viable to form any kind of government, but neither is the NDP or the Bloc. They are running candidates in every single riding across the country, except one, which is a product of the ill-advised deal Stephane Dion made with May to not run candidates in each others ridings. (This works just fine for May, but as May herself is running against Peter Mackay, Dion might be thinking twice about not being able to run a candidate against the Foreign Minister) Also, as of the dissolution of Parliament, they actually had a sitting MP, as the near-disgraced, now-cleared but shunned by his former Liberals MP Blair Wilson had switched to Green stripes.

Maybe the Greens should have been let in last time, or the one before, but this time around, they have national prominence, and cannot be denied. More importantly, their main party issue should be injected into our national discourse in a major way.

May and the Greens are taking legal action to hopefully force their way onto the national stage. They've been doing a damn good job of it for over a decade now, and I hope the trend continues sometime in the next few weeks.

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Jack Layton and Stephen Harper really jumped out of the starting blocks of the national campaign today, hitting hard on issues and trying to define their opponents, campaigns and themselves.

Stephane Dion on the other hand, has had more of a...slow start on the race.

His campaign plane will not be ready for another few weeks, even though this election had been on the horizon since the moment he sat for the first time as Liberal leader in Parliament. He is to be on a bus tour for the time in between, and began today with a rally in Montreal.

As you can see from a 24 Hours review of the event here , it didn't seem to lack too much punch and enthusiasm.

This is going to be a tough campaign for Dion just based on the issues (Green Shift), let alone having to battle problems with energizing his Liberal base and the electorate. This is a very uphill battle, and Dion started with a thud.

Harper, on the other hand, has been issuing election-style commercials for a few weeks now, and peppering Canadian mailboxes with fliers about leadership, the environment, crime, and all the other issues of the day. They have a big head start on the hearts and minds campaign, as the Harper commercials have been effective, showing ordinary people praising Harper's policies, and the man himself.



On a side note, I saw the first Liberal ad of the campaign, and it was highly unimpressive. It didn't seem to have a clear point, didn't convince anyone about the Green Shift, throwing out a bunch of cliche lines about creating jobs and making our economy stronger, without offering specifics. It closed with a very bad, grainy shot of Dion saying something about why he respects Canada. I say again, THUD.

(Note: I searched for a good 20 minutes trying to find the Liberal Party's ad on YouTube, but could not, and ironically, every search with the keywords 'liberal' 'party' 'election' 'ad' 'Canada' '2008', etc, ended up pulling up the Stephen Harper leadership commercials for the first 3-4 hits. Dion is losing the viral campaign already, and with this generation possibly going to the polls, that is a very necessary chord to hit)

Layton gave a fiery speech in Vancouver today, hitting the Conservatives hard on their environmental and social policies. Jack is trying to be the Canadian Obama, preaching about being the candidate of 'change', and right away, it seems to be working for him. He has the populist cred to run this kind of campaign, and with him paying no attention to Dion and all his attention to Harper, in a year where people seem to be largely apathetic towards Dion, and not entirely comfortable with Stephen Harper having a majority, he could steal a lot of left-leaning voters.

I honestly think we will end up in another Conservative minority government, but if Dion flubs, or people are not comfortable enough with him, or Jack, then it could lead to a big Conservative slide.

Jack has opportunities, so does Harper, and the Liberals are just trying to hang on.

Ahhh, feels like 2006 all over again.

I do also think this will be Dion's only election as leader, and he will be subtly, or not so subtly, pushed to the side after the almost assured loss. I think everyone that leans left of Bush in this country (Which would be the type of policies Stephen Harper in a majority setting would emulate to the fullest) is just hoping he doesn't blow it and condemn us to absolute rule by the Conservative Party, and then we'll move on to someone more capable of winning an election. Someone like Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae, two men who should have been the last two in the leadership contest before Dion and Gerard Kennedy pulled their backstage deal to swipe the leadership away.

That aside, I have heard many people say in this cycle they will not vote Liberal or NDP, they will simply vote non-Conservative. Whatever works in their riding to ensure that seat is not held by a Conservative MP is what their vote is pointed towards. That concept will likely decide the makeup of our next Parliament more than anything the leaders have to say over the next 5 weeks, because with the polls showing a near tie amongst the Liberals and Conservatives, not many opinions are likely to change in just over a month, no matter how heavy the rhetoric and how prosperous the policy proposals are.

Republicans Seem to Like 'Time Since' Counters, Here's One For 'Em

We've all seen these countdown clocks. Time since Obama has been to Iraq. Time since Obama agreed to appear on Fox News and hasn't, etc.

I have an idea for a counter for the Democrats.

The time since Sarah Palin has been the Republican Vice Presidential nominee and has failed to hold a credible media appearance.

As of the publish of this story, at just after midnight PST, we are currently at 6 Days, 15 Hours and 40 minutes since Sarah Palin was officially introduced as McCain's VP.

Besides a fluff piece gone wrong with US Magazine , there has been nothing. Sarah Palin has been in a cocoon, being tutored and prepped by the finest of neocon strategists.

No press pools, no taking questions, no sit-downs with Brian Williams or spots on The View, nothing. She has been in virtual seclusion.

I think this shows just how little confidence McCain has in his pick to actually, y'know, answer substantive questions about her views on the issues of the day. As no one knows the views of someone who could be President in January if Johnny Mac drops, this might be a tad important to assure voters about the solidity of your ticket and your future administration. Call me crazy.

Apparently not though, as diaried earlier here , it looks like Palin isn't going to be available to beat this counter anytime soon, or even at all before November.

There might be a few heavily glossed, manufactured appearances, but no real journalist-to-politician situations, as apparently it's just too dangerous.

Is Johnny Mac and the right really planning this kind of strategy?

This is just plain weak, and it will make Palin, and McCain consequently, look shaky as all sin, shady, and untrustworthy.

The only way I see this kind of blackout ending is if there is a serious fuss made, and I think this clock can serve, if only tiny, a bit of that purpose.

I do think the media, after they get over caving to the McCain campaign's attacks against them over the honest reporting of the numerous Palin scandals, will begin to clamor for time with Palin, for sit-down interviews, press availability, anything, whether it be on the Straight Talk Express, the Straight Talk Private Jet, or the Straight Talk Hovercraft.

There should be pressure out there, but it doesn't mean we don't have to apply it too.

I'm not really a tech guy, so I can't create an actual clock, or something to that effect, but nudge, nudge, I'm sure there's someone in the Intertubes that could help out with that one...

6 Days, 15 Hours and 40 minutes since Sarah Palin was introduced as VP, and has failed to give a credible media appearance.

Start the counter people, I have a feeling it's going to run for a while.

Cross Posted on Daily Kos under the name Red Star

CNN Blinks and Fawns Over Palin - Pundit Live Blog Mishmash

I only had to watch about 5 minutes of post-speech coverage to see that yes, CNN has blinked. They have bent over for McCain AGAIN, and seem to be backing off Palin's numerous, and I mean NUMEROUS scandals.

The speech was light on the economy, and national security policy, but full of down to earth, real person rhetoric, which the stadium audience ate right up, and the so-called experts are now also scooping up heartily.

Ahahaha, Alex Castellanos just said that Palin is essentially the lead character in an 'Annette Benning movie', where the 'woman fights the good ol' boys network, wins, marries Michael Douglas, falls in love and lives happily ever after'. Castellanos is a longtime street fighter Republican, and this is how he, and the majority of his party see a pivotal woman's story playing out on the largest stage possible. This is the kind of respect that anybody but the rich and the pedigreed receive with this party. Anything else is pandering. Remember that.

Campbell Brown seems to have been put in her place as well, stating more than once how fantastic the speech was after nailing Palin's record to the wall yesterday. Wolf Blitzer, the man of the all-mighty beard, called the speech not only a home run, but a grand slam. John King, as always, is doing his best to not seem a strong partisan Republican, which, as always, is not going well. He even pulled out the Magic Screen to illustrate how many states George Bush won in the last election, as if that map has any bearing on this game-changer of an election.

Roland Martin is sllllllaming Palin right now for criticizing community organizers, saying they are the people who fight on the streets, and for people, and it should be a major talking point for Obama and Biden going forward. I agree, it could be huge, as those same organizers have great influence over generating people to go to that voter booth and cast a ballot. Who is that ballot going to be for, the campaign that mocked, or the campaign as essentially came from its roots? Nice, simple equation there.

Jeffery Toobin is making a point that I thought of during the speech as well, that Palin came off smug and sarcastic for a large chunk, kind of ruining her sweet hockey mom image.

He also cited the lie about her opposition to the Bridge to Nowhere, the lie about Barack Obama raising taxes, when taxes will fall for, he said 80%, Obama says 98%, of the middle class and the only increases will be for people making over $250k a year.

Lastly, making the most of his two minutes on the air, he said how Sarah Palin has in a sense lost the innocence around her, that she showed that she's a tough fighter tonight, and the Obama campaign will be less hesitant in the future to go after her. I like the fact that she came out that way, as absolutely no one likes to see a major leader be soft and weak in the face of pressure, but she, and McCain sure as hell better not cry smear campaign or character assassination or sexism any more. No one that goes out there and delivers a speech like that can ever again be portrayed as weak, or a victim, implicitly or not, ever again.

This thought made its way around the round table and seemed to get everyone's acquiescence. Excellent, no more sexism, Palin-is-the-victim memes. Well, at least for right now, I'm sure they'll be back in full force whenever they are on the defensive again, like say tomorrow, when the next scandal breaks loose about Alaskan independence, or women's rights, reproductive, contraceptive, or educational. She has a checkered past and no policy stands to speak of, and that will be an issue, speech or no speech.

Oops, Dana Bash just slipped and said "we", when referring to Republicans. Smooth, and clearly shows how independent her journalism is, if her words and actions didn't show that enough.

Wow, in a shocking act of actual journalism, Blitzer is stating McCain doesn't have executive experience, and has been part of the 'Washington establishment' for more than the last 25 years. Castellanos blew it off by again hitting the POW theme (Good lord, can that be referenced again, I think I forgot what happened) and it then was passed over, but still, nice to actually see some honesty flowing around.

Christ, Campbell Brown has pulled a complete 180, now defending Palin, on sexist grounds, against a statement by Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader for issuing a statement saying that 'shrill, partisan attacks do not change the fact that McCain-Palin is four more years of failed Bush Cheney policies. Wow, Dana Bash agrees, there's a surprise. Nice how a few minutes after saying Palin will be attacked now, saying she opened that door, the first attack that rolls off the wire after the speech is ripped to shreds, portraying Palin as a victim of sexism.

That's it, that's all, I'm done with CNN for the night. Republicans give me a headache, and watching Guiliani go two minutes without referencing 9/11 was almost enough to shock me into a seizure even before the mind-numbing right-wingness of Sarah Palin barracuda'ed (Heh) onto the stage. Twenty minutes of praise for the campaign that embarrassed the network and made them all look like shit not even 24 hours ago is enough to make me flick off for the night.

Live Blogging the Palin VP Acceptance Speech

She's kept it pretty 'down home' so far, talking about humble roots, her family, her husband, introducing her and her family to the world, as most know literally nothing about her.

She just dropped what is honestly a very good dig at Obama, explaining that being the mayor of a small town is 'like a community organizer, with actual responsibilities' Snap!

She's now bringing up the 'bitter' comment, which Guiliani did too. She's painting Obama as an elitist, and McCain as a straight talking good guy. She just made a comment about how John McCain is 'the same person wherever he goes'. I wonder if she knows about McCain's switching out of the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers in his POW story of the mental trick he used during interrogations based on whatever state he's in at the time?

There seems to be an image behind Palin now of a fiery explosion. Nice symbolism guys. No need to tie her to y'know, a bomb or anything, as it's not like she's fighting the image of being a bomb as a candidate...

Now she's saying she opposed earmarks and pork. Weird how Alaska ranks first in earmark money and Palin was cited by McCain at least 3 times in her term for unnecessary earmark diversion to her state. Let's also toss her connection to Jack Abramoff into the mix, as we seem to be on an anti-Washington establishment theme here. Real true reformers here guys and girls.

Oh, and she just repeated her 'thanks but no thanks' lie about the infamous 'Bridge to Nowhere', which she campaigned upon in her election as Governor, fought for, then kept money intended for the bridge after Washington killed it. Now though, it went down with her rejecting federal funds. Well, about that little nugget of a lie Sarah, thanks but no thanks.

She's actually discussing policy now, instead of taking shots and giving a bio, saying that the Alaskan oil pipeline will essentially solve America's foreign oil dependency. Yea, maybe after drilling in the pristine Alaskan National Wildlife Preserve, which she supports fully, by the way.

Geez, again they are going after Obama for 'not having a record' when he's spearheaded dozens of bills fighting against nuclear proliferation, government transparency and other major issues, going across the aisle to do so. Message to Republicans, stop beating this dead horse, it's just going to backfire.

Now apparently Obama again lacks specifics, even though he went line by line through his plan last Thursday in front of 75,000 in person and almost 40 million at home, listing off exactly how his policies will be laid out and paid for, and exactly who they will benefit. But I guess facts and statements aren't really applicable, this is the RNC after all.

She's also hitting a Libertarian kind of theme (Or maybe it's that Alaskan Independence streak, who knows), saying that more controls will be coming from Washington under an Obama Administration. Yes, that is true, and I must ask Gov. Palin, has the deregulation and 'freedom' of the past 8 years has really worked out all that well?

Here comes the 'hard facts' on Obama as a tax raiser. This is in spite of the fact that 98% of families will be getting tax cuts under his tax plan, and only the richest would see an increase. 'Hundreds of billions of dollars in new taxes' under Obama she says. Well, when the top two percent control that much, then yea, it could be a number like that. But lets keep letting the gap between rich and poor grow larger, that's definitely a better idea Sarah.

I must say though, she seems very comfortable up there, very smooth, doesn't seem nervous, and is very down to earth. I know that's what they're trying to push, and I know she didn't actually write the speech, but she sure is reading it well. Almost like someone who used to be a sportscaster (Oh wait, that was what she studied in college, wasn't it?).

This is quite a hard-hitting speech though, and she is delivering it well. This is very much what Palin needed to do tonight, which was essentially her first platform as a national politician.

She just mentioned McCain was a POW for about the 27th time as well. She's basically saying McCain should be President almost as a reward (!) for being a POW. Apparently his POW experience also counts as foreign policy cred now too (Well if being geographically close to Alaska counts, I suppose this could too). Never mind of course McCain's POW colleague Phillip Butler said McCain should actually be disqualified from running because of the physical and mental strain of his POW days. McCain's judgment because of his POW status counts...not this guy.

The speech is over, she ended with another McCain is a POW mention. Shocking. The whole Palin family, secessionists and baby-mommas in a row, are now on stage, and Palin is holding her son Trig, in a nice family moment.

Johnny Mac is on stage now, saying only a few words, thanking Palin and saying he is sure he made the right choice.

They're switching over to the pundits now, and I'm interested to see if they will heed to McCain's criticism earlier today about their supposed 'smear campaign' (read: truthful journalism) about Sarah Palin. Will they fawn, or will they break it down honestly?

We'll see, and I'll try to be back for an end of the night recap later.

It was about as good as the Republicans and Palin could have hoped for, as she hit all the points, introduced herself well, and slammed Obama in a few new and interesting ways. Interesting night, we'll see how it plays out in the news and the polls.

I was just about to publish and realized that I need to add something else.

CNN is bullshit. Plain and simple. They never once broadcast the closing pledge of allegiance and national anthem during the DNC, and yet here it gets full coverage. Who comes off as more patriotic of the parties then? Nice and classy, as CNN always is. Oh and now, they're keeping the main feed on the stage for 'Raising McCain', a pro-McCain country song performed by John Rich. Real objective guys, thanks for showing your true stripes.

Federal Election in October All But Assured After Harper and Dion Meet and Decide They Cannot Play Nice

Along with the attention-grabbing US election, it looks like Canadians are also going to go to the polls this fall.

Stephane Dion came out of a meeting with Stephen Harper at 24 Sussex Drive this afternoon and announced to reporters that there was going to be a fall campaign, because he wouldn't give Harper a "blank cheque to govern".

Everyone seems to be on board this time, unlike the near misses in the past.

Dion has been Liberal leader for almost 2 years now, and apparently has been backed into enough of a corner to have at least the appearance of growing a set. Harper seems to be more than willing to violate his own fixed election date law that sets our next federal election for 2009. Jack Layton responded to that move by saying essentially that if Harper wants to quit his job he'll be first in line to apply for it. Gilles Duceppe has pledged to hold a confidence vote, with or without any support.

So here we are folks, ready to mark ballots again.

The competing themes will be leadership from the Conservative side, and the Green Shift policy put forth by Dion.

I would go over the NDP and Bloc approaches, but those haven't changed much. For the NDP, bitch about anything that gets traction, and for the Bloc, bitch about not getting enough support from Ottawa even though you want to separate entirely. Oh, and the Greens, how could I forget? Bitch about the environment and run your leader against one of the highest profile Conservatives in a safe, deep blue riding. Smmmart.

I've actually been meaning to write about the outreach I've been seeing in my mailbox from the Conservative party for a while now, so this seems as good a spot as any to do so.

I have now gotten 4 separate mailers from the Conservatives, about Strong Leadership, Youth Crime, Senate Reform and Clean Air.

They are all stacked with facts, figures, policy standpoints, and imagery that is thought-provoking. Me and my fiancee had a separate conversation each time one of them came in the mail, sparking conversation about the Conservative stances. On leadership and Senate reform, I found myself on the Conservative side of things, which is an odd sensation to say the least.

I do think Harper is a stronger national and international player for Canadian interests than Stephane Dion would be. I don't care for Harper's policies when it comes to free trade and relations with the Bush Administration, but I can take some good with the bad, especially when compared with Paul Martin's Panderbear foreign and domestic policies.

On the Senate, I've been on the reforming train for as long as I have understood the Canadian political process. In no modern democracy should we have an unelected, highly paid, patronage-infested body, which serves almost no purpose other than to rubber stamp. The Senate as is, is nothing more than a money pit which lends itself to cronyism, as all members are essentially there as a reward for a career of party loyalty. This does not jive with a functional democracy. There does need to be a check on Parliament, as we cannot have one sole elected body, especially with a majority government, as that setup is essentially a dictatorship anyways.

We need a Senate that represents all areas of the country equally, with 2 or 3 members for each province, with elections that run opposite Parliamentary cycles.

That is plain and simple, but Dion does not agree, as the Liberals have a heavy majority in our unelected chamber, due to being the governing party an overwhelming majority of the time in Canadian history. Most Canadians are on the side of reform, some on abolishment, but I do not see too many advocating for the status quo on this one.

I'm not saying I agree with the information as a whole, and definitely not on punishing our youth harder as opposed to rehabilitating them, or that Harper is on the right side of the climate change argument, despite his attempts, but the point is they are providing information, and the Liberals are not.

The Conservatives have also debuted a series of commercials to define Harper as a strong leader for Canada, and surprisingly, they don't take shots at Dion, they're simple record pieces on Harper to show people he is the best leader for Canada right now. They are with ordinary people; blue collar workers and soccer moms, listing with emotion and certainty the Conservative accomplishments since in power, and how those accomplishments helped their daily lives and made them feel safer.

Harper does still have a sizable 'creepy problem', as shown in the closing seconds of the ad, when he is sitting down, perched forward with his elbows on his knees, wearing a sweater, and smiling into the camera. It doesn't seem normal, and honestly, it gives me the willies. All in all though, he is in people's hearts and minds more than Dion, by a long shot.

Dion, as detailed in a previous article, available off the right side of this page, has a serious communication issue, as even after 2 years, most Canadians don't know or trust him enough to mark Liberal in their riding come October.

There are of course areas that will remain Liberal until the day this country dies, but there are a lot of battleground-type areas available for either side, with the NDP spoiling a race here or there.

BC is a big toss up, with a left-leaning, green-based ideology perfectly suited to swing Liberal. I've lived here my whole life, and I still cannot understand why the majority of BC seats are as blue as the sky. Partially it is a symptom of the incompetent provincial NDP party, as people have trouble dividing federal parties from their essentially unaffiliated provincial brethren.

But aside from that, it comes down to delivery, to speaking to people's concerns everywhere, not just in Southern Ontario and across the St Lawrence seaway.

Harper can and will nab Alberta easily, but with a concerted effort, a few of those seats further West can swing the other way.

Dion must spend the next two months connecting with people, traveling coast to coast and convincing them that his Green Shift is the way to go for the country.

The Conservatives have spent almost their entire time in power trying to build up their cred on green issues, but it all has rung rather hollow, leaving Dion the opportunity he needs to kick the door in to a serious electoral advantage. Dion needs to hit that note, and hit it hard, convincing people not only is his plan the way to go, but that environmental issues are the most pressing of our time. His whole policy book is built around the Green Shift, so people need to see the environment as above their pocketbook, because that is where the Green Shift is going to hit them.

Dion has said the Shift will be revenue neutral, but that isn't the kind of language that people are going to get in line with everywhere, especially with Harper hammering home the fact that it is a tax increase, leaving aside the incentives and tax cuts elsewhere. As I have said previously, the Green Shift is not an effective campaign strategy, although it is likely a great governing strategy. Hard truths are not easy to campaign on, especially when you have communication and trust issues with the electorate.

The Conservatives are hitting home with their mailers and ads, and Dion needs to jump on this before it is too late. Leadership will be the question, as it always is, but Dion's supposed test of leadership will be defined by how people view the Green Shift. If they don't agree, then Dion and the Liberals are in serious trouble, and Harper might get the majority government he so craves.

We'll find out in the next two months what the Canadian people see as the best road forward, and during that time, we will also see the most dynamic and important US Presidential election ever held.

For pols, such as myself, the fall season isn't going to be about new shows, it's going to be about policy proposals and politics at the highest levels. It's going to be busy, and I'm going to be loving every minute of it.