The Greens : Breakthrough or Death Blow?

The much-lamented non-breakthrough of the Green Party to win any seats in Parliament was a bit of a disappointment, but in reality, I would have been shocked if they had.

Judging by the tone of at least Elizabeth May and Adrianne Carr in their post-loss interviews, they seemed to feel the same way.

My view on the Greens is that this was, in fact, their breakthrough election.

Stay with me now.

This was the first time that the Greens weren't seen as a fringe, throw-away your vote party. They were seen as a viable alternative, and they actually made some pretty good gains in the popular vote, and in BC.

In terms of the popular vote, they grew by about 3%, which guarantees them another few million in public funds to run their party for the next few years, and become a more viable force in the next election cycle.

Canadians aren't huge fans of dramatic or drastic changes, and while electing a Green MP wouldn't have entered that territory, it was enough of a change to make people pause, if for no more than this cycle, and also was based on the ridings those prominent Greens were running in.

I wish Elizabeth May didn't run in Central Nova against Peter McKay. I wish Adrianne Carr didn't run against Hedy Fry and Lorne Mayencourt in Vancouver Centre. These are the two highest profile Greens, being respectively their leader and deputy leader, so it was relatively imperative that one of them enter Parliament if the Greens were actually going to be anything more than a bump in the road in Canadian politics.

May chose Nova because she grew up there, which is completely admirable, and the way decisions of which riding to take a crack should start from. But not when it's the Defense Minister who currently sits there, and not when it's a strong blue riding. She came a strong second, partially because there was no Liberal in the riding, but mostly because May is an incredibly gifted orator and politician, and would actually do more for Central Nova than people could ever hope for from McKay.

Alas, it was not to be. And furthermore, May is going to run in the same riding the next time around. Damn.

Here sits the best, most dynamic and intelligent Green Leader we have seen on the national scene, and she is going to again throw herself into what is essentially an unwinnable riding against Peter McKay. If she ran out in BC this cycle, or next, she would likely be sitting in the benches. Instead, she will likely lose, and the Greens will eventually be forced to turn to a leader that actually has a chance of sitting in Parliament, because at the end of the day, that is the only way to do anything you want to do politically in this country. I honestly love Elizabeth May, her candor, her skills and her beliefs, but I'll be shocked out of my shoes if she's ever the MP for Central Nova.

In terms of Carr, this was another missed chance to make an impact, as she was part of the Greens national face, appearing in commercials and having the title of Deputy Leader. She ran in the strongest riding in Vancouver, and finished a distant fourth. No matter what the polls showed, Carr tanked.

Hedy Fry has now won 6 elections, Lorne Mayencourt has high name recognition from being an MLA in the riding, and Michael Byers of the NDP was expected to have a strong showing. Against all this, Carr threw herself into the mix. As with May, a more strategic riding choice could have sent a Green MP to Ottawa.

I see plenty of sunshine around the edges of the shutout though. The Greens finished above the Liberals in almost every BC riding breakdown I saw over the course of last night, pulling significant numbers of votes. There is room to grow, but only at the expense of the Liberals, because at the end of the day, Green ideology is essentially very Liberal in nature, obviously with a heavier emphasis on the environment.

They can take some of the steam out of the NDP as well, but seem to pull in more disaffected Liberals than anyone else.

Splitting votes between the three will only lead to more and stronger Conservative governments, so maybe something like the Dion-May deal to not run candidates in each others ridings could be tried on a larger scale. That is a different subject for a different day though, as is proportional representation, which seems ever more prevalent on the minds of people after seeing the Bloc pull 50 seats out of 10% popular vote, and the Greens pull zero, when their popular vote totals were about 7%.

I understand it is not the best juxtaposition to put these 2 parties together, but when we talk straight numbers, the system we have seems even worse than most people believe it to be.

The Greens are not dead, not by a long shot, and if May stays as leader, and they keep getting themselves into debates, and into the conversation, they will eventually find themselves in Parliament as well.