Saturday, March 8, 2008

A Logical Plea for, well...Logic

Hillary Clinton is on a path that could lead to the Democrats actually losing what should be the easiest election they have ever fought. They are running against 7 years of disaster, and yet, can't seem to get this train rolling to knock everything back into line.

And that's because Hillary Clinton has tied the train to a post at the station, stubbornly refusing to believe the gigantic set of flashing lights in front of her, showing the impossible delegate count she must overcome.

She is looking over to that smokey room, that one at the Democratic convention, where she hopes to drag her and Barack Obama all the way to, bloodied and ready for the Republican pickings, just so she can try to score a backroom deal with party leaders, subvert a drawn out and, what's the word...ahem, democratic (!) process to choose the party leader and likely next President of the United States.

Unless Hillary Clinton can score margins of victory of about 23% over every single caucus and primary left, she has no shot of catching Barack Obama's delegate total. Especially after he won Wyoming today. It was only a two delegate gain, but its one more state out of play to gain on him, and another he has the distinction of saying he's won so far.

Let's be honest here, if Hillary Clinton really gave a damn about the Democratic Party or her country, she would gracefully step back and accept what is staring her straight in the face. Unless she causes a fissure in the Democratic Party by somehow squeezing her way into the nomination chair, she is doing nothing but giving John McCain fodder and hurting Obama’s chances in every state they are campaigning in from now until she does drop out of the race.

It's not just for the sake of the democratic process. This is important, but there are other things at stake, even if we want to throw a year and a half of campaigning out the window for a few hours of Clinton intimidation in the convention rooms in Denver.

Barack Obama is simply more electable than Hillary Clinton, especially in areas Democrats haven't been popular in for decades, sometimes even, well, ever. The states he have won have generally been Republican strongholds, and Hillary has racked the big states, like Ohio, the Texas primary (but not caucus), California and New York, but lets be honest, states like the latter two, are not going to suddenly turn red because Barack Obama is the nominee. They were both very narrow losses, and both would be more than expected to continue their blue ways for some time to come. Same goes for the entire northeast. But there are places that Obama is making breakthroughs in, that Hillary Clinton has no chance in doing.

I was reading an interesting piece over at Daily Kos earlier today, and I want to give them all the credit in the world for the statistics below, as they came directly from the piece, I just wanted to share them here. Please visit the original as well, as Daily Kos is a fantastic website for politics, and you can find the link to it over on the right side.

These stats deal in hypothetical polls of an Obama-McCain match up and a Clinton-McCain match up.

Idaho, it's the difference between overcoming a 13-point Obama deficit and a 36-point Clinton deficit.

In Colorado, it's the difference between overcoming a 6-point Clinton loss, and riding a 9-point Obama victory.

In Alaska, it's the difference between overcoming a 5-point Obama loss, and a 22-point Clinton loss.

In Nebraska, it's the difference between a 3-point Obama loss, and a 27-point Clinton loss.

In New Hampshire, it's the difference between an 8-point Clinton loss and 2-point Obama victory.

In Oregon it's the difference between a 5-point Clinton loss, and an 8-point Obama victory.

In Texas it's the difference between a seven-point Clinton loss, and a 1-point Obama loss.

In Wyoming, it's the difference between a 33-point Clinton loss and a 19-point Obama loss, and same thing in Montana, it's the difference between a 20-point Clinton loss and an 8-point Obama loss.

These are extremely important statistics, as it shows Obama does have national, 50 state appeal, and Hillary Clinton is as polarizing and unpopular with Independents and Republicans as was predicted before this campaign started. It also shows that Obama is on a quick path to whooping John McCain come November, with his millions of new voters, excitement and hope on his side, and McCain with nothing more than a bill for an endless Iraq war, and no idea in hell of how to stop us from slipping into a 30s era depression.

Hillary Clinton has labeled Obama's victories in the states he has won as basically completely unimportant, as he did not carry any large states outside of Illinois, his home state. As I said above, Obama would carry the large states without a doubt, and may lose so-called swing states like Ohio, and possibly Texas, but where he makes in-roads will more than off-set those losses, and I think after this election, there won't be, as Barack has said on many an occasion, red states or blue states, but just united states.

But just look at those numbers...Obama is down by 1% in Texas...TEXAS! A black Democrat is well within the statistical margin of error, with a real chance of carrying Texas.........TEXAS...unbelievable.

All conventional wisdom goes out the window this cycle. There are no more strongholds for Republicans if Obama is the nominee, but they become even stronger if Clinton is.

Obama has a chance of running an actual 50 state campaign and giving the Democratic Party the infrastructure, ground game, and credibility to compete in these states for years to come. Should we really give up such a chance of a generation, even a lifetime, simply to fulfill Hillary Clinton's ego driven march towards a nomination that is already realistically filled by another?

People must force Hillary Clinton to halt her damaging and spiteful campaign against Barack Obama, because clearly she doesn't have the shame, or sensibility, to do so herself.

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