I Know It's Been a While...

It's been a while since I posted, even about the epic, dramatic and world-altering election of Barack Obama, so the question begs...why?

Basically it boils down to a lack of time, a lack of a home computer, and a recovery from the orgy of politics I've been swimming through for the last 2+ years.

I can't promise a coherent, regular posting schedule, but I can promise my full effort and weight behind anything I do put out there.

I hope to do a couple pieces on Canadian politics in the coming hours / days, as we look to be on the verge of either a coalition government of Liberals and New Democrats, or yet another election.

There is also the Cabinet picks of Mr. President-elect to mull over, although I will be perfectly honest and admit I don't know who too many of these people are, because their time in the sun, back with the Clintons, was when I was still in my early teens, and not into politics in the least, let alone digging through qualifications for Cabinet picks.

In any sense, I do hope to get more out there more often, but only time will tell.

The World Changes This Fall -- For Better or Worse is Up to Us

The electoral maps are shifting like crazy right now, with Obama booming and Harper falling, and I couldn't be happier about either one.

Economy, economy, economy. The one issue people care about, here, and down South. The one thing that affects everyone, and the one thing that Conservatives and Republicans lose on every single time.

Whenever the economy starts to trend down, people turn to the left to resurrect it.

The most striking example, and one that has an immense parallel to today would be FDR's election in the midst of the Depression. The New Deal came along after he stepped in, and revolutionized the way the government does business, and the values of an entire nation.

The same opportunities lie bare right now in the US, and even to an extent here.

Stephane Dion is no FDR, and at best a poor man's Obama, but his Green Shift would bring a dramatic, future-reaching change to the Canadian economy that is desperately needed right now.

I am not comfy with the thought of Dion being the face of Canada, but on his policy proposals alone, the man will change us for the better. Not to get too far deep into the Green Shift, but as I have ranted in the past in this space, and others, flipping our economy to be Green-based, with innovations and Canadian-made green technology that we can then go sell and market abroad would make us akin to oil powers in today's age, like Saudi Arabia. It will create green collar jobs, and we will then be on the cutting edge of technology the entire globe will be using in a few decades. We will control patents, and be able to provide our economy with a stable, renewable, clean base for the next ten generations, as opposed to the dirty, fluctuating and unstable footing we and the previous few have stood on.

Ok, Green Shift / carbon tax rant over.

In terms of Obama, there is nothing overarching like a Green Shift, but with promises to invest in those very same technologies in the US, like wind, solar, etc, he is also putting his country on the same footing, and looking to the future, not staying mired in the present and past of carbon-based economic models.

That, along with ambitious healthcare proposals, ending the war in Iraq, giving the middle class back their country and taking it from the 1% that George W let it be consolidated into will fundamentally change how Americans see their country, and therefore the beliefs that country reflects, and it can only be viewed as for the better, because it cannot get any worse than it is right now.

In the face of the economic issues that he helped to propagate, Johnny Mac has really done nothing but flounder and flip flop his way through the last few weeks, watching his polling numbers sink almost in tune with the stock market.

Now we have William Ayers on the political map again because of it, as Johnny figured out he simply cannot win on economics, and desperately needs a change in subject. This crap was tried and failed badly in the primaries, and it will do so on this stage as well.

McCain is behind in several key states, and even some that should be on lockdown. All the so-called battleground states, like Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Nevada, all show 10+ leads for Obama in the polls, something that cannot be explained away by margins of error, or anything else other than he is WINNING.

Plain and simple, he is winning, and only electoral fraud or god forbid, assassination is going to stop this man from sitting in the White House January 20, 2009.

On that front, the McCain-Palin ticket is beginning to race-bait, starting a few days ago by inciting crowds to a frenzy, to the point where they have yelled out, 'Kill him', 'terrorist', and 'Off with his head', obviously referencing the junior Senator from Illinois. Is it just me, or is this seriously dangerous territory to be running on? The noble maverick-y candidate has clearly lost that honor he touts so frequently, if he ever really had it in the first place. Clearly the memories of the sting of George W's baseless attacks in 2000 have faded away, replaced by a hunger to win at all costs.

Obama is projecting out at 350+ on some electoral maps, and at least 300+ on some of the less ambitious or gutsy pollsters (270 to win). Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com, the single best polling site out there, has Obama winning 9/10 times in his electoral predictions, which all through the primaries proved to be about as rock-solid as can be.

It has never looked better for the good Senator in the 20 months he has been in this game, and I have a sneaky suspicion that trend will continue on through November 4.

Back to Canada, before we close.

Harper's poll numbers have been dwindling in the past week or so, down to the point where Dion is nearing the margin or error.

My belief is that his drop is two-fold. First, people are watching him brush off the economic crisis as nothing more than background noise, while watching the economy of the country where 80% of our exports go completely tank. If they have issues with liquidity, and being able to buy anything, let alone import our lumber and other commodities, who do you think is going to feel the pain first?

Harper has shown little to no leadership here, repeating over and over that the Canadian economy is strong. Platitudes and words are all well and good, but I want contingency plans, I want clear visions of what we can do if the US gets into really serious trouble. We get nothing but essentially this : 'Nah, don't worry about it, we're cool'. That doesn't suffice from a Prime Minister.

The second of those two folds is Dion, who has been coming on strong, starting in the English debate, where he actually showed he has the chops to stand toe-to-toe with Harper on the issues of the day.

I find this is what worried people, and myself, the most about a Dion government, that he would be a little weakling drip. I think he has shown that's not the case, and the only thing left is whether people get on board with the Green Shift, which is not a foregone conclusion by any sense.

Dion still has a communication problem, and with a complex, tax-shifting policy, that is a serious issue. I still don't think he will end up being Prime Minister, but if he can stem the Conservative flow to a majority, he's good in my books.

Jack has run strong so far, but he will never be PM with that orange albatross around his neck. Same with Elizabeth May, except hers is tinged Green. Both of these two are more effective communicators, and better leaders than Stephane Dion, and yet, they chose parties that can never actually govern.

Ideological people are great, and the people that end up really caring enough to effect change in the end, but at some point, you have to see the only path to 24 Sussex is a little red / blue road, not orange or green.

We are days away from Canada's choice, and about three weeks from the US's. This is special ground my friends (sorry to steal the line Johnny ;)), and this time in politics will be talked about and studied for a long time into the future.

Game-changing, ground-breaking, paradigm-altering races.

I'm just glad I'm around to take it all in.

Election Tidbits - Greens Shut Out, Harper and Layton Fast Out of the Gate, Dion Lags

It looks like Elizabeth May and the Greens are going to be shut out of another leaders debate. The decision was made today by a group of Canadian television broadcasters who actually run the debates on their airwaves to only host the Conservative, Liberal, NDP and Bloc parties for the two debates slated for early October.

Unlike all the other times, this time I actually feel they should be there.

They are a legitimate national party now. They are not viable to form any kind of government, but neither is the NDP or the Bloc. They are running candidates in every single riding across the country, except one, which is a product of the ill-advised deal Stephane Dion made with May to not run candidates in each others ridings. (This works just fine for May, but as May herself is running against Peter Mackay, Dion might be thinking twice about not being able to run a candidate against the Foreign Minister) Also, as of the dissolution of Parliament, they actually had a sitting MP, as the near-disgraced, now-cleared but shunned by his former Liberals MP Blair Wilson had switched to Green stripes.

Maybe the Greens should have been let in last time, or the one before, but this time around, they have national prominence, and cannot be denied. More importantly, their main party issue should be injected into our national discourse in a major way.

May and the Greens are taking legal action to hopefully force their way onto the national stage. They've been doing a damn good job of it for over a decade now, and I hope the trend continues sometime in the next few weeks.

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Jack Layton and Stephen Harper really jumped out of the starting blocks of the national campaign today, hitting hard on issues and trying to define their opponents, campaigns and themselves.

Stephane Dion on the other hand, has had more of a...slow start on the race.

His campaign plane will not be ready for another few weeks, even though this election had been on the horizon since the moment he sat for the first time as Liberal leader in Parliament. He is to be on a bus tour for the time in between, and began today with a rally in Montreal.

As you can see from a 24 Hours review of the event here , it didn't seem to lack too much punch and enthusiasm.

This is going to be a tough campaign for Dion just based on the issues (Green Shift), let alone having to battle problems with energizing his Liberal base and the electorate. This is a very uphill battle, and Dion started with a thud.

Harper, on the other hand, has been issuing election-style commercials for a few weeks now, and peppering Canadian mailboxes with fliers about leadership, the environment, crime, and all the other issues of the day. They have a big head start on the hearts and minds campaign, as the Harper commercials have been effective, showing ordinary people praising Harper's policies, and the man himself.



On a side note, I saw the first Liberal ad of the campaign, and it was highly unimpressive. It didn't seem to have a clear point, didn't convince anyone about the Green Shift, throwing out a bunch of cliche lines about creating jobs and making our economy stronger, without offering specifics. It closed with a very bad, grainy shot of Dion saying something about why he respects Canada. I say again, THUD.

(Note: I searched for a good 20 minutes trying to find the Liberal Party's ad on YouTube, but could not, and ironically, every search with the keywords 'liberal' 'party' 'election' 'ad' 'Canada' '2008', etc, ended up pulling up the Stephen Harper leadership commercials for the first 3-4 hits. Dion is losing the viral campaign already, and with this generation possibly going to the polls, that is a very necessary chord to hit)

Layton gave a fiery speech in Vancouver today, hitting the Conservatives hard on their environmental and social policies. Jack is trying to be the Canadian Obama, preaching about being the candidate of 'change', and right away, it seems to be working for him. He has the populist cred to run this kind of campaign, and with him paying no attention to Dion and all his attention to Harper, in a year where people seem to be largely apathetic towards Dion, and not entirely comfortable with Stephen Harper having a majority, he could steal a lot of left-leaning voters.

I honestly think we will end up in another Conservative minority government, but if Dion flubs, or people are not comfortable enough with him, or Jack, then it could lead to a big Conservative slide.

Jack has opportunities, so does Harper, and the Liberals are just trying to hang on.

Ahhh, feels like 2006 all over again.

I do also think this will be Dion's only election as leader, and he will be subtly, or not so subtly, pushed to the side after the almost assured loss. I think everyone that leans left of Bush in this country (Which would be the type of policies Stephen Harper in a majority setting would emulate to the fullest) is just hoping he doesn't blow it and condemn us to absolute rule by the Conservative Party, and then we'll move on to someone more capable of winning an election. Someone like Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae, two men who should have been the last two in the leadership contest before Dion and Gerard Kennedy pulled their backstage deal to swipe the leadership away.

That aside, I have heard many people say in this cycle they will not vote Liberal or NDP, they will simply vote non-Conservative. Whatever works in their riding to ensure that seat is not held by a Conservative MP is what their vote is pointed towards. That concept will likely decide the makeup of our next Parliament more than anything the leaders have to say over the next 5 weeks, because with the polls showing a near tie amongst the Liberals and Conservatives, not many opinions are likely to change in just over a month, no matter how heavy the rhetoric and how prosperous the policy proposals are.

The Carbon Tax -- Don't Let Politically Motivated Opposition Spoil Our Path to Environmental Leadership

I've heard a lot tossed around the last few weeks about the carbon tax that Gordon Campbell and his BC Liberals crammed through the Legislature with minimal debate. Of course, I think that debate should have been allowed to continue, but probably for different reasons than one would assume.

I am fully and completely for the carbon tax.

There, I said it.

Everyone hates it, and I can understand why with the way the whole debate has been framed by the media and opponents, but I'm here to tell you why this is a good thing, and why it will make BC better, provide jobs, and stabilize our economy for decades.

Ok, bad news first. Yes, your gas prices will go up.....by a whopping 2.4 cents. Gas is already rising 5-7 cents a week as is, so realistically, the uproar over that portion of the carbon tax is a little overblown.

The main problem I can see is with heating. This is going to be more of a cost impact than anything seen at the pump. An average house in the suburbia around Vancouver is already paying far more than they should to heat their homes (because Gordon Campbell sold our public Gas utility to an American conglomerate, who has since doubled, and will soon triple the rates).

This is where what seems to be the most popular new term in Canadian politics comes into play: 'Revenue Neutral'.

Obviously the meaning of the term is that even though it is a tax increase, the government will not be collecting any new tax dollars off of it, as there will be cuts and dividends in other areas. It is a tax shift. You have already seen the $100 Carbon Tax dividend cheque in your mailbox if you're a BC'er, and there is more to come in the form of tax cuts.

We are still paying the same amount of money overall, and all the revenue collected from that extra 2.4 cents a litre is going to be directed towards developing alternative fuels, green technology, and breaking the province, the country, and maybe even beyond from our addiction to fossil fuels as a whole.

There is a bigger picture than just at the pump here people. We are doing our part to ensure that in a decade or two, there doesn't even need to be a pump at all.

Directing huge chunks of money towards these technologies means there will be plenty of new 'Green Collar' jobs created as well. Think of what we can do with all that money and people power put to good use.

Imagine if we can bridge the gap and actually become a world leader in green technology? We can sustain ourselves in the new world we are seeing the edges of today. The world is moving green, and if BC can be on the forefront of that, we can make ourselves, and Canada, into serious powerhouses.

The other day, I read that within 7 years, Mercedes-Benz will no longer be producing cars that run off of gasoline. 7 years! Unbelievable. This is the world we will be living in soon, and by taking this brave step, and being the first in North America to introduce a carbon tax, Gordon Campbell and his Liberals have taken BC down a potentially prosperous new path.

The NDP, provincially, and federally actually, now that Stephane Dion has introduced his federal carbon tax, are opposed, saying that everyone shouldn't be hit, and any taxes on carbon emissions should heavily target corporations and companies who are the worst offenders. I am more than fine with that, but it doesn't mean people driving SUVs and H2's and cars from 1973 shouldn't be hit as well. This is an 'across the board' problem that needs to be dealt with, you guessed it, across the board.

I find it odd that a party so focused on environmental initiatives as Jack Layton's would take a stand against something this progressive and dedicated to the movement away from fossil fuels, but with him, and with Carole James here provincially, the issue isn't really the carbon tax, it's that they both need some kind of uniting issue for their parties to draw in votes in quickly approaching elections.

Provincially, Carole James didn't have a leg to stand on, and did not have a single uniting issue, until now, with this carbon tax. Same goes for Jack. So while they will push on, decrying that the Liberals, provincially, and nationally, are hitting ordinary Canadians with a tax increase, their words will likely never ring so hollow. Both have betrayed their ideological beliefs for political posturing.

It is by no means the first or last time something like that will happen in politics, but for me personally, as someone that has voted NDP every time I have marked a ballot, it is especially disingenuous.

I just hope the larger picture is seen in this whole debate, because if the argument is going to be framed as just a jump in gas prices, the larger message, and the larger plan as a whole, will be lost, and 10-20 years from now, we'll be watching another country taking the mantle (and the revenue) as the place to go for green.

Bilateral Civil Assistance Plan

There was an agreement signed on February 14, 2008, between U.S. Air Force Gen. Gene Renuart, commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, and Canadian Air Force Lt.-Gen. Marc Dumais, commander of Canada Command, that essentially ended Canada’s stint as a free and independent country.

It is called, as this article is entitled, the 'Bilateral Civil Assistance Plan'. What this agreement does is allow American troops to operate on Canadian soil in times of civil emergency, and vice versa. I can't think of a circumstance where the US would ask us to step in, but with the depleted numbers of their own National Guard due to the war in Iraq, maybe it is a possibility.

Either way, this kind of agreement, signed with smiles, as you can see if you like by clicking on the title, which will take you to the US Northern Command site, is dangerous in so many ways I'm thinking if I should check and see if there's a word limit on Blogger before I get really into this.

We're losing sovereignty, straight up. I don't know about the rest of you, but watching the US operate on the world stage for the last 8 years doesn't instill too much trust in them not abusing this agreement and taking it in ways it was never originally intended (see, Original UN Iraq Resolution)

Who defines this 'emergency'?

Say for example, the Canadian Prime Minister is assassinated, everything is in chaos, we have no clear number 2 because of a ridiculously outdated political system, the US steps in to 'lend assistance' during the crisis. Bingo Bango, we've got a 'friend' who won't get the hell out of our country.

The US has plenty of fingers in plenty of friendly pies, and it will be over my dead body before those fingers are in ours. I know we have been bought out piece by piece by US companies, our culture is dominated by that from the South of us, and our current government panders to the Bush administration like an underachieving child to an overbearing father, but US troops, in our streets, 'keeping the peace' is more than I could handle.

That is just one of many different scenarios that would be made out to be justifiable in such a circumstance, as any logical and realistic person knows the US would love to have our resources and space for their own uses. We have always resisted them at every turn from complete and utter domination, but this agreement sets all that back dramatically.

We have laws in place to preserve 'Canadianism', culturally, requiring so much Canadian content on our radio and airwaves, but is that really enough?

The most troubling aspect of this entire agreement, leaving out everything mentioned, is that it was never even brought up in the House of Commons, let alone debated and passed by a plurality of elected members. The same goes for the US Congress. Not a whiff of this passed through there either. And it was not released to the press, and was actually suppressed by the Canadian government from coming to light.

This is a major treaty, changing the way we define our borders and how we allow other nations to operate within them. This fundamentally alters Canadian sovereignty forever. And no one knows it even happened.

I will be lobbying my Member of Parliament, Bill Siksay of the NDP, to at least raise this issue in the House, and have the Prime Minister and the Conservative government answer for their actions and their secrecy. I recommend you do the same if you at all care about maintaining Canada as a free and independent nation. Links to each party, where you can find your MP, and for US readers, your Member of Congress, are located on the right side. We need to raise this issue now, because it seems like our governments are completely unwilling to.

Find Your Member of Parliament

Find your Member of Congress

Apathy anyone...?

We are facing a rather large political crisis in Canada...Apathy.

I know this isn't a new problem, but its one that seems to be affecting a growing number of people, and its not even confined just to my generation anymore.

The Liberal and Conservative parties are in a virtual tie right now, both hovering around 30%, with the NDP at about 15%, the Greens right behind them and the Bloc polling at about 40% in Quebec.

I think this is due to the leaders of these parties, and the fact that not one of them inspires me to do a thing politically, and I already have a deep investment in the process. What does this mean for the rest of the folks in this country, the uninitiated ones looking for something, or someone, to grab them and make them want to get involved?

Apathy...that's what...

The polling I mentioned above has barely moved a tick since the time Stephane Dion became leader of the Liberals in late 2006. Dion is easily the most ineffective federal leader the Liberals have ever had and is pretty much a sure bet to be the first Liberal leader never to sit in 24 Sussex Drive. His poor command of the English language, as well as possessing the personality of a KFC wetnap may have something to do with this.

Stephen Harper on the other hand, is a very shrewd politician, and I give him respect as such, but he has done nothing to move ahead of the drip his only political competition has served up, leaving him and his party languishing in minority status, probably for a long time. If he is unable to capitalize on the absolute gift that is Stephane Dion's incompetence, what is going to happen when the Liberals get a capable leader? Someone like Michael Ignatieff, or Bob Rae would blow him out of the water. Stephen Harper is a smart man, with policies that I simply don't agree with, but he can't inspire anyone or anything.

Jack Layton, while I absolutely love his candor and personality, gives off this air of a used car salesman. This is something you've probably read before, because its been said numerous times before, but I honestly think that if Jack was a Liberal, he'd be sitting at Sussex right now, and not with a handful of seats and dwindling time in the spotlight. Jack has the ability to inspire, but the NDP does not, as people see it as a waste of a vote, and a completely un-viable party federally. Jack's going into his fourth election, and while he has grown the base and support of his party, and brought it back from also-ran status, it will never be viable in a federal election, and that's all that really matters at the end of the day.

Elizabeth May. I like her passion, but the Greens, bleh, maybe in two or three decades they'll have a dozen seats, but now, with their leader running in an almost un-winnable riding against Peter McKay, the leadership structure falling apart and resigning, they don't have a shot. They're seen as a joke, and who's inspired by a joke?

I look down to the US, and I see a man like Barack Obama, who inspires me immensely, and I don't even live in his country, or vote in his country. The men and women that do run my country, the country I do vote in and the country which I hope to someday play a hand in running myself, don't have a tenth of what Sen. Obama has. A politician like him, up here, would have an absolute field day.

So what're we left at the end of the day folks, a dud, a robot, a used car salesman and a hippy idealist...any of these inspire you, or are you feeling rather...what's the word...

Apathetic...?