Are the Liberals Losing This Generation?

I'm coming to the realiztion that this Liberal leadership race is probably about the most important in the history of the party.

A heavy statement, I know, but here's something even weightier :

This leader will decide whether the Liberal Party lives on past the next 5-10 years, or whether it fades into obscurity.

The reason I say these things is that I don't see anyone in this generation really grabbing onto them as an opposing force to the right wing, which is galvanized behind one party, as opposed to left, which is fragmented among three. The salvation of young people right now, whether they actually vote or not, seems to lie with the NDP, or to a lesser extent, the Greens.

Everyone I spoke to, and almost everything I read over the course of the campaign from those under 30 seemed to be pulling for Jack and the orange crew, followed by May and the Greens. Dion and the Grits as a whole were almost nowhere to be found.

The next leader will have to be somewhat generational, someone able to bridge the gap between old and young as Martin Cauchon promised to be when he bandied around throwing his name into the ring, as they will need to stem the tide of under-30s over to the other two left-wing parties, or the left will simple get more fragmented as younger folk mark their ballots for the NDP and Greens and older left-leaners continuing marking theirs Grit.

We need to pull the left together if we ever hope to be in government again, and a generational fragmentation is the complete opposite direction of that.

Now, while I think age is a concern this time, as no other really has been, it doesn't disqualify in any way those that are somewhat advanced in that category, such as Rae, Ignatieff or McKenna. Experience does not equal an inability to reach out to the youth. It may make it harder, but all that really matters is the substance of your words and actions, not what year it says on a birth certificate.

There needs to be a significant youth outreach, aside from the Young Liberals or any other group already existing. This needs to be a central plank of not just the party, but of the leadership contest itself as well.

We are going to be witnessing a pseudo-election campaign over the next 6 months, and there needs to be a heavy emphasis on pulling youth into the process. An e-campaign, if you will.

Look at Barack Obama. The man has pulled in millions, hundreds of millions in fact, due to his advanced web presence. That presence, along with his 3 million-plus email list, are one of the many reasons why he won the primary and is now pulling away with the general election.

Elections have largely been taken to the 'net, and away from the more traditional sources such as TV, Radio and mailers.

The beauty of the e-campaign too is that it is largely cost-free. Things like Facebook, Twitter, podcasts, etc, cost little to nothing, and make a significant impact on the younger people of this country, as we are all over these services pretty much every day.

Fundraising is also a big concern for the Liberals after being dominated by the Tories, and the e-campaign takes care of that in two ways. As I said above, it's relatively cheap so this kind of outreach won't hurt the overall bottom line that much, if at all, and also, they can raise money online, through the grassroots, while getting them connected and into the party and its leaders.

There is no drawback to a heavy Internet presence, and only leaps and bounds to gain.

People that already identify as Liberals and are not web-savvy are not going to be affected, as they'll likely keep on the same news sources they have their entire lives, which are those traditional ones that Liberals already market to.

Basically, the gist of this argument is pulling the Liberals into the 21st century, and making them seem like they actually can empathize with the issues of the youth voters in this country.

Sure, people in my demo don't vote as much as they should, but that's not a permanent problem, and it is something that is easily fixable. The youth vote is powerful, and if a party can actually go out there and harvest those immense numbers, we are looking at a redesign of the electoral maps from the Pacific to the Atlantic.

It is not simply the 'net though, as there needs to be campus outreaches, people at concerts handing out flyers and buttons, and other activities of the like to get those under-30s thinking about the future of their country, where it is headed, and instilling the belief that they can play a role in that future too, because up until now, I don't think people really have felt all that included in the process.

This whole youth-based outreach business obviously needs to be in tandem with actual policies that help people get in school, get jobs, and lead our country forward, especially as Baby Boomers are moving into their sunset years, and we will all need to pick up that slack left behind in their wake.

The under-30s are going to be the engine of the economy very soon, and if we lose them to the Conservatives, we'll be shut out of power for decades.

The Liberal Leadership : The Race, and the New Political Reality

With Stephane Dion resigning this past Monday as leader of the Liberal Party, (thank God) it opens up a new race for the person that will succeed him and lead the Grits into the next election, and hopefully further.

There are already contenders floating around, even as Dion's gravestone is still being carved.

Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, the two from which the last leader should have been chosen, will almost certainly be in the running once again, as their leadership campaign machines are still warm under the hood from the last race. Both of these two, as last time, have even-to-better odds of being the next leader in 2009. Hopefully we don't see another dark horse backroom deal like the one that screwed both of these men in 2006. If they lose, they lose, but Dion pulled 18% on the first ballot in '06 and ended up the leader. That stinks worse than roadkill on a 40 degree day.

Today, Martin Cauchon, a member from the Chretien era, has said he may also consider tossing his hat into the ring, citing the need for a 'generational change'. He is experienced in government, a former Cabinet minister, and is only in his late 40s, well under the 60-plus years of both Ignatieff and Rae. He could have a shot, but with Dion doing so badly, mostly based on his communication skills, I find it hard to believe the Liberals would appoint another Francophone to their leadership. Aside from that, his age and experience would both be tremendous assets. We'll see where that goes, but I'm labelling him as a long shot for now.

There are also some other repeat candidates, aside from Rae and Ignatieff.

Gerard Kennedy, the man that gave us Stephane Dion is likely to run again, as is Martha Hall Findley, who may find herself on better footing this time around than last, as she is now a sitting MP. Same with Kennedy.

They are still considered very long-shot tries and if either wins, I will be stunned, but in that same sense, who saw Dion as viable last time?

The most intriguing of all the candidates, at least in my mind, is Frank McKenna, the former premier of New Brunswick, Canadian Ambassador to the US, and current Deputy Chairman of TD Bank.

He has the cred, both politically and economically to blow everyone else out of the water.

Frankly, he would have done so in 2006 had he chosen to run, deciding instead to step aside, later taking the TD gig.

This race will be shaped by him, and whether he gives it a go this time around. If he does not, I expect Rae or Ignatieff to take the mantle handily.

This seems like very much a re-do of the disastrous 2006 choice, with Dion obviously not around to swipe it this time.

The leadership choice will be made in May of 2009 in Vancouver (yay, my home city) and it will lay the groundwork for the Liberal Party for what I think will be at least the next decade, as two disastrous choices in a row could doom them to obscurity (If Dion hasn't already done so).

The Liberals are in serious need of a kick-start, as they have died as a party in BC, finishing fourth in most ridings behind even the Greens, getting knocked around badly in Quebec and losing ground in Ontario.

They also are very much in need of an overhaul in the way they fundraise, as Harper and the Tories absolutely killed them in the financial race this cycle, allowing them to run attack ad after attack ad and basically assassinate Stephane Dion's character before he really even got rolling.

Liberals can cry all they want about the right wing propoganda machine killing them this cycle, but that is part of the game, and if they can't hold their ground in that part of the game, they will lose every single time.

No one likes attack ads, but they work, and the Liberals need to recognize the reality of the situation.

You can whine, or you can win, and whether it's Ignatieff, Rae, McKenna, Cauchon, Kennedy, Hall-Findley or someone else, they need to go on the offensive as soon as they take the keys, or the Liberals will be looking for a new leader once again in a few years.

Election Tidbits - Greens Shut Out, Harper and Layton Fast Out of the Gate, Dion Lags

It looks like Elizabeth May and the Greens are going to be shut out of another leaders debate. The decision was made today by a group of Canadian television broadcasters who actually run the debates on their airwaves to only host the Conservative, Liberal, NDP and Bloc parties for the two debates slated for early October.

Unlike all the other times, this time I actually feel they should be there.

They are a legitimate national party now. They are not viable to form any kind of government, but neither is the NDP or the Bloc. They are running candidates in every single riding across the country, except one, which is a product of the ill-advised deal Stephane Dion made with May to not run candidates in each others ridings. (This works just fine for May, but as May herself is running against Peter Mackay, Dion might be thinking twice about not being able to run a candidate against the Foreign Minister) Also, as of the dissolution of Parliament, they actually had a sitting MP, as the near-disgraced, now-cleared but shunned by his former Liberals MP Blair Wilson had switched to Green stripes.

Maybe the Greens should have been let in last time, or the one before, but this time around, they have national prominence, and cannot be denied. More importantly, their main party issue should be injected into our national discourse in a major way.

May and the Greens are taking legal action to hopefully force their way onto the national stage. They've been doing a damn good job of it for over a decade now, and I hope the trend continues sometime in the next few weeks.

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Jack Layton and Stephen Harper really jumped out of the starting blocks of the national campaign today, hitting hard on issues and trying to define their opponents, campaigns and themselves.

Stephane Dion on the other hand, has had more of a...slow start on the race.

His campaign plane will not be ready for another few weeks, even though this election had been on the horizon since the moment he sat for the first time as Liberal leader in Parliament. He is to be on a bus tour for the time in between, and began today with a rally in Montreal.

As you can see from a 24 Hours review of the event here , it didn't seem to lack too much punch and enthusiasm.

This is going to be a tough campaign for Dion just based on the issues (Green Shift), let alone having to battle problems with energizing his Liberal base and the electorate. This is a very uphill battle, and Dion started with a thud.

Harper, on the other hand, has been issuing election-style commercials for a few weeks now, and peppering Canadian mailboxes with fliers about leadership, the environment, crime, and all the other issues of the day. They have a big head start on the hearts and minds campaign, as the Harper commercials have been effective, showing ordinary people praising Harper's policies, and the man himself.



On a side note, I saw the first Liberal ad of the campaign, and it was highly unimpressive. It didn't seem to have a clear point, didn't convince anyone about the Green Shift, throwing out a bunch of cliche lines about creating jobs and making our economy stronger, without offering specifics. It closed with a very bad, grainy shot of Dion saying something about why he respects Canada. I say again, THUD.

(Note: I searched for a good 20 minutes trying to find the Liberal Party's ad on YouTube, but could not, and ironically, every search with the keywords 'liberal' 'party' 'election' 'ad' 'Canada' '2008', etc, ended up pulling up the Stephen Harper leadership commercials for the first 3-4 hits. Dion is losing the viral campaign already, and with this generation possibly going to the polls, that is a very necessary chord to hit)

Layton gave a fiery speech in Vancouver today, hitting the Conservatives hard on their environmental and social policies. Jack is trying to be the Canadian Obama, preaching about being the candidate of 'change', and right away, it seems to be working for him. He has the populist cred to run this kind of campaign, and with him paying no attention to Dion and all his attention to Harper, in a year where people seem to be largely apathetic towards Dion, and not entirely comfortable with Stephen Harper having a majority, he could steal a lot of left-leaning voters.

I honestly think we will end up in another Conservative minority government, but if Dion flubs, or people are not comfortable enough with him, or Jack, then it could lead to a big Conservative slide.

Jack has opportunities, so does Harper, and the Liberals are just trying to hang on.

Ahhh, feels like 2006 all over again.

I do also think this will be Dion's only election as leader, and he will be subtly, or not so subtly, pushed to the side after the almost assured loss. I think everyone that leans left of Bush in this country (Which would be the type of policies Stephen Harper in a majority setting would emulate to the fullest) is just hoping he doesn't blow it and condemn us to absolute rule by the Conservative Party, and then we'll move on to someone more capable of winning an election. Someone like Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae, two men who should have been the last two in the leadership contest before Dion and Gerard Kennedy pulled their backstage deal to swipe the leadership away.

That aside, I have heard many people say in this cycle they will not vote Liberal or NDP, they will simply vote non-Conservative. Whatever works in their riding to ensure that seat is not held by a Conservative MP is what their vote is pointed towards. That concept will likely decide the makeup of our next Parliament more than anything the leaders have to say over the next 5 weeks, because with the polls showing a near tie amongst the Liberals and Conservatives, not many opinions are likely to change in just over a month, no matter how heavy the rhetoric and how prosperous the policy proposals are.

Federal Election in October All But Assured After Harper and Dion Meet and Decide They Cannot Play Nice

Along with the attention-grabbing US election, it looks like Canadians are also going to go to the polls this fall.

Stephane Dion came out of a meeting with Stephen Harper at 24 Sussex Drive this afternoon and announced to reporters that there was going to be a fall campaign, because he wouldn't give Harper a "blank cheque to govern".

Everyone seems to be on board this time, unlike the near misses in the past.

Dion has been Liberal leader for almost 2 years now, and apparently has been backed into enough of a corner to have at least the appearance of growing a set. Harper seems to be more than willing to violate his own fixed election date law that sets our next federal election for 2009. Jack Layton responded to that move by saying essentially that if Harper wants to quit his job he'll be first in line to apply for it. Gilles Duceppe has pledged to hold a confidence vote, with or without any support.

So here we are folks, ready to mark ballots again.

The competing themes will be leadership from the Conservative side, and the Green Shift policy put forth by Dion.

I would go over the NDP and Bloc approaches, but those haven't changed much. For the NDP, bitch about anything that gets traction, and for the Bloc, bitch about not getting enough support from Ottawa even though you want to separate entirely. Oh, and the Greens, how could I forget? Bitch about the environment and run your leader against one of the highest profile Conservatives in a safe, deep blue riding. Smmmart.

I've actually been meaning to write about the outreach I've been seeing in my mailbox from the Conservative party for a while now, so this seems as good a spot as any to do so.

I have now gotten 4 separate mailers from the Conservatives, about Strong Leadership, Youth Crime, Senate Reform and Clean Air.

They are all stacked with facts, figures, policy standpoints, and imagery that is thought-provoking. Me and my fiancee had a separate conversation each time one of them came in the mail, sparking conversation about the Conservative stances. On leadership and Senate reform, I found myself on the Conservative side of things, which is an odd sensation to say the least.

I do think Harper is a stronger national and international player for Canadian interests than Stephane Dion would be. I don't care for Harper's policies when it comes to free trade and relations with the Bush Administration, but I can take some good with the bad, especially when compared with Paul Martin's Panderbear foreign and domestic policies.

On the Senate, I've been on the reforming train for as long as I have understood the Canadian political process. In no modern democracy should we have an unelected, highly paid, patronage-infested body, which serves almost no purpose other than to rubber stamp. The Senate as is, is nothing more than a money pit which lends itself to cronyism, as all members are essentially there as a reward for a career of party loyalty. This does not jive with a functional democracy. There does need to be a check on Parliament, as we cannot have one sole elected body, especially with a majority government, as that setup is essentially a dictatorship anyways.

We need a Senate that represents all areas of the country equally, with 2 or 3 members for each province, with elections that run opposite Parliamentary cycles.

That is plain and simple, but Dion does not agree, as the Liberals have a heavy majority in our unelected chamber, due to being the governing party an overwhelming majority of the time in Canadian history. Most Canadians are on the side of reform, some on abolishment, but I do not see too many advocating for the status quo on this one.

I'm not saying I agree with the information as a whole, and definitely not on punishing our youth harder as opposed to rehabilitating them, or that Harper is on the right side of the climate change argument, despite his attempts, but the point is they are providing information, and the Liberals are not.

The Conservatives have also debuted a series of commercials to define Harper as a strong leader for Canada, and surprisingly, they don't take shots at Dion, they're simple record pieces on Harper to show people he is the best leader for Canada right now. They are with ordinary people; blue collar workers and soccer moms, listing with emotion and certainty the Conservative accomplishments since in power, and how those accomplishments helped their daily lives and made them feel safer.

Harper does still have a sizable 'creepy problem', as shown in the closing seconds of the ad, when he is sitting down, perched forward with his elbows on his knees, wearing a sweater, and smiling into the camera. It doesn't seem normal, and honestly, it gives me the willies. All in all though, he is in people's hearts and minds more than Dion, by a long shot.

Dion, as detailed in a previous article, available off the right side of this page, has a serious communication issue, as even after 2 years, most Canadians don't know or trust him enough to mark Liberal in their riding come October.

There are of course areas that will remain Liberal until the day this country dies, but there are a lot of battleground-type areas available for either side, with the NDP spoiling a race here or there.

BC is a big toss up, with a left-leaning, green-based ideology perfectly suited to swing Liberal. I've lived here my whole life, and I still cannot understand why the majority of BC seats are as blue as the sky. Partially it is a symptom of the incompetent provincial NDP party, as people have trouble dividing federal parties from their essentially unaffiliated provincial brethren.

But aside from that, it comes down to delivery, to speaking to people's concerns everywhere, not just in Southern Ontario and across the St Lawrence seaway.

Harper can and will nab Alberta easily, but with a concerted effort, a few of those seats further West can swing the other way.

Dion must spend the next two months connecting with people, traveling coast to coast and convincing them that his Green Shift is the way to go for the country.

The Conservatives have spent almost their entire time in power trying to build up their cred on green issues, but it all has rung rather hollow, leaving Dion the opportunity he needs to kick the door in to a serious electoral advantage. Dion needs to hit that note, and hit it hard, convincing people not only is his plan the way to go, but that environmental issues are the most pressing of our time. His whole policy book is built around the Green Shift, so people need to see the environment as above their pocketbook, because that is where the Green Shift is going to hit them.

Dion has said the Shift will be revenue neutral, but that isn't the kind of language that people are going to get in line with everywhere, especially with Harper hammering home the fact that it is a tax increase, leaving aside the incentives and tax cuts elsewhere. As I have said previously, the Green Shift is not an effective campaign strategy, although it is likely a great governing strategy. Hard truths are not easy to campaign on, especially when you have communication and trust issues with the electorate.

The Conservatives are hitting home with their mailers and ads, and Dion needs to jump on this before it is too late. Leadership will be the question, as it always is, but Dion's supposed test of leadership will be defined by how people view the Green Shift. If they don't agree, then Dion and the Liberals are in serious trouble, and Harper might get the majority government he so craves.

We'll find out in the next two months what the Canadian people see as the best road forward, and during that time, we will also see the most dynamic and important US Presidential election ever held.

For pols, such as myself, the fall season isn't going to be about new shows, it's going to be about policy proposals and politics at the highest levels. It's going to be busy, and I'm going to be loving every minute of it.